Trend Analysis of Annual and Monthly Rainfall in Erbil City, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
The objective of this study is to identify the trend for the annual and monthly rainfall time series data from 1963–1964 to 2018–2019 for Erbil city rainfall gauging station. The trend analysis was conducted for only rainy months (from October to May) using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, wher...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Erbil Polytechnic University
2019-10-01
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| Series: | Polytechnic Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://polytechnic-journal.epu.edu.iq/home/vol9/iss2/6 |
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| Summary: | The objective of this study is to identify the trend for the annual and monthly rainfall time series
data from 1963–1964 to 2018–2019 for Erbil city rainfall gauging station. The trend analysis was
conducted for only rainy months (from October to May) using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test,
whereas a non-parametric Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the magnitude of the trend.
A functional relationship has been developed between variables using linear regression analysis to
determine a linear trend of rainfall for the study area. The annual trend analysis revealed negative
(decreasing) trend because the Kendall’s tau (Z) value and the Sen’s slope estimator magnitude
were both negative and found to be −0.093 and −1.37, respectively, and the slope of the linear
regression analysis was also negative and equal to −0.9148 mm/year, which represents the rate of
yearly annual rainfall decreasing trend. Considering the result of monthly rainfall, the trend analysis
of rainfall has suggested that there is a trend variation of rainfall in the rainy months. Further, the
analysis revealed a negative (decreasing) trend for months November, January, February, March,
April, and May and positive (increasing) trend for months October and December. This study is
important as it greatly contributes in water resources system planning and management in this
region. Furthermore, the results obtained in this work are promising and might help hydraulic civil
and water resource engineers in the design of hydraulic structures |
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| ISSN: | 2707-7799 |