Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Input Parameters on Seismic Hazard Results: A Case Study of Central America
We present a sensitivity analysis on the impact of input parameters and methods used on the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The accurate estimation of the parameters in recurrence models (declustering and fitting methods), along with the selection of scaling relationship...
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| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/1/4 |
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| author | Carlos Gamboa-Canté Mario Arroyo-Solórzano Alicia Rivas-Medina Belén Benito |
| author_facet | Carlos Gamboa-Canté Mario Arroyo-Solórzano Alicia Rivas-Medina Belén Benito |
| author_sort | Carlos Gamboa-Canté |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We present a sensitivity analysis on the impact of input parameters and methods used on the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The accurate estimation of the parameters in recurrence models (declustering and fitting methods), along with the selection of scaling relationships for determining maximum magnitude and the selection of ground motion models (GMMs), enhance control over epistemic uncertainties when constructing the logic tree, minimizing final calculation errors and producing credible results for the study region. This study focuses on Central America, utilizing recent data from seismic, geological, and geophysical studies to improve uncertainty analyses through classic statistical methods. The results demonstrate that proper fitting of the recurrence model can stabilize acceleration variations regardless of the declustering method or <i>b-value</i> fitting method used. Regarding scaling relationships, their low impact on the final results is noted, provided the models are tailored to the tectonic regime under study. Finally, it is shown that the GMM contributes the most variability to seismic hazard results; therefore, their selection should be conditioned on calibration with observed data through residual analysis where region-specific models are not available. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cb02f375286148d1b7a76ff9f7e4c417 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2076-3263 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-cb02f375286148d1b7a76ff9f7e4c4172025-01-24T13:34:06ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632024-12-01151410.3390/geosciences15010004Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Input Parameters on Seismic Hazard Results: A Case Study of Central AmericaCarlos Gamboa-Canté0Mario Arroyo-Solórzano1Alicia Rivas-Medina2Belén Benito3Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros en Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28031 Madrid, SpainHelmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences and University of Potsdam, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyEscuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros en Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28031 Madrid, SpainEscuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros en Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28031 Madrid, SpainWe present a sensitivity analysis on the impact of input parameters and methods used on the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The accurate estimation of the parameters in recurrence models (declustering and fitting methods), along with the selection of scaling relationships for determining maximum magnitude and the selection of ground motion models (GMMs), enhance control over epistemic uncertainties when constructing the logic tree, minimizing final calculation errors and producing credible results for the study region. This study focuses on Central America, utilizing recent data from seismic, geological, and geophysical studies to improve uncertainty analyses through classic statistical methods. The results demonstrate that proper fitting of the recurrence model can stabilize acceleration variations regardless of the declustering method or <i>b-value</i> fitting method used. Regarding scaling relationships, their low impact on the final results is noted, provided the models are tailored to the tectonic regime under study. Finally, it is shown that the GMM contributes the most variability to seismic hazard results; therefore, their selection should be conditioned on calibration with observed data through residual analysis where region-specific models are not available.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/1/4sensitivity analysisrecurrence parametersGMMscaling relationshipsseismic hazardCentral America |
| spellingShingle | Carlos Gamboa-Canté Mario Arroyo-Solórzano Alicia Rivas-Medina Belén Benito Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Input Parameters on Seismic Hazard Results: A Case Study of Central America Geosciences sensitivity analysis recurrence parameters GMM scaling relationships seismic hazard Central America |
| title | Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Input Parameters on Seismic Hazard Results: A Case Study of Central America |
| title_full | Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Input Parameters on Seismic Hazard Results: A Case Study of Central America |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Input Parameters on Seismic Hazard Results: A Case Study of Central America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Input Parameters on Seismic Hazard Results: A Case Study of Central America |
| title_short | Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Input Parameters on Seismic Hazard Results: A Case Study of Central America |
| title_sort | sensitivity analysis on the impact of input parameters on seismic hazard results a case study of central america |
| topic | sensitivity analysis recurrence parameters GMM scaling relationships seismic hazard Central America |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/1/4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT carlosgamboacante sensitivityanalysisontheimpactofinputparametersonseismichazardresultsacasestudyofcentralamerica AT marioarroyosolorzano sensitivityanalysisontheimpactofinputparametersonseismichazardresultsacasestudyofcentralamerica AT aliciarivasmedina sensitivityanalysisontheimpactofinputparametersonseismichazardresultsacasestudyofcentralamerica AT belenbenito sensitivityanalysisontheimpactofinputparametersonseismichazardresultsacasestudyofcentralamerica |