Future high-voltage-direct-current cable supply and demand as a potential threat to the European Union's energy transition
This paper analyzes the main factors influencing manufacturing costs of high-voltage-direct-current (HVDC) cables in the European Union (EU), scenario developments until the year 2050, and measures that could potentially stabilize cable production costs. HVDC cables play an important role in the ene...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001841 |
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| Summary: | This paper analyzes the main factors influencing manufacturing costs of high-voltage-direct-current (HVDC) cables in the European Union (EU), scenario developments until the year 2050, and measures that could potentially stabilize cable production costs. HVDC cables play an important role in the energy transition, because the economic operation of an increasingly decentralized power grid due to renewable energies requires technology with low transmission losses. Since the EU lists copper as a strategic raw material and its availability is critical for the manufacturing of HVDC cables, a partial equilibrium model is employed to reduce uncertainty in price estimates for this commodity. In a sensitivity analysis, the contribution of each input variable to our cable cost model is assessed. The results suggest that HVDC cables exert a negligible effect on EU copper demand, although cost trends diverge significantly across the baseline and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1, 2, and 4 from the SSP framework that depicts five plausible future world scenarios. Compared to 2022, values in 2050 differ by 26.5 %, −42.6 %, 13.8 %, and 108.8 %, respectively, including a copper supply shortage in the baseline and in the SSP4 scenario. The input parameters global population, energy price, and recycling rate have the highest sensitivity. The paper concludes that cable costs are tied to the affordability of copper, demanding a resilient supply chain and increasing recycling efforts. Metal availability and regulatory framework impact the timely development of the HVDC connections that will be necessary for the energy transition in Europe. |
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| ISSN: | 2211-467X |