Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks
Abstract There are large uncertainties in the estimation of greenhouse-gas climate feedback. Recent observations do not provide strong constraints because they are short and complicated by human interventions, while model-based estimates differ considerably. Rapid climate changes during the last gla...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0 |
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| author | Mengmeng Liu Iain Colin Prentice Laurie Menviel Sandy P. Harrison |
| author_facet | Mengmeng Liu Iain Colin Prentice Laurie Menviel Sandy P. Harrison |
| author_sort | Mengmeng Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract There are large uncertainties in the estimation of greenhouse-gas climate feedback. Recent observations do not provide strong constraints because they are short and complicated by human interventions, while model-based estimates differ considerably. Rapid climate changes during the last glacial period (Dansgaard-Oeschger events), observed near-globally, were comparable in both rate and magnitude to current and projected 21st century climate warming and therefore provide a relevant constraint on feedback strength. Here we use these events to quantify the centennial-scale feedback strength of CO2, CH4 and N2O by relating global mean temperature changes, simulated by an appropriately forced low-resolution climate model, to the radiative forcing of these greenhouse gases derived from their concentration changes in ice-core records. We derive feedback estimates (95% CI) of 0.155 ± 0.035 W m−2 K−1 for CO2, 0.114 ± 0.013 W m−2 K−1 for CH4 and 0.106 ± 0.026 W m−2 K−1 for N2O. This indicates that much lower or higher estimates, particularly some previously published values for CO2, are unrealistic. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ca048e4535ed4915a58e75d862981ccb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-ca048e4535ed4915a58e75d862981ccb2025-01-26T12:53:56ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352022-08-013111010.1038/s43247-022-00536-0Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacksMengmeng Liu0Iain Colin Prentice1Laurie Menviel2Sandy P. Harrison3Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College LondonDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College LondonClimate Change Research Centre/ESSRC, The University of New South WalesMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua UniversityAbstract There are large uncertainties in the estimation of greenhouse-gas climate feedback. Recent observations do not provide strong constraints because they are short and complicated by human interventions, while model-based estimates differ considerably. Rapid climate changes during the last glacial period (Dansgaard-Oeschger events), observed near-globally, were comparable in both rate and magnitude to current and projected 21st century climate warming and therefore provide a relevant constraint on feedback strength. Here we use these events to quantify the centennial-scale feedback strength of CO2, CH4 and N2O by relating global mean temperature changes, simulated by an appropriately forced low-resolution climate model, to the radiative forcing of these greenhouse gases derived from their concentration changes in ice-core records. We derive feedback estimates (95% CI) of 0.155 ± 0.035 W m−2 K−1 for CO2, 0.114 ± 0.013 W m−2 K−1 for CH4 and 0.106 ± 0.026 W m−2 K−1 for N2O. This indicates that much lower or higher estimates, particularly some previously published values for CO2, are unrealistic.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0 |
| spellingShingle | Mengmeng Liu Iain Colin Prentice Laurie Menviel Sandy P. Harrison Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks |
| title_full | Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks |
| title_fullStr | Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks |
| title_short | Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks |
| title_sort | past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse gas climate feedbacks |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0 |
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