Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in China
Background. The twin epidemic of overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major public health problem globally, especially in China. Overweight/obese adults commonly coexist with T2DM, which is closely related to adverse health outcomes. Therefore, this study aimed to develop risk...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Endocrinology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8899556 |
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| author | Qingqing Liu Jie Yuan Maerjiaen Bakeyi Jie Li Zilong Zhang Xiaohong Yang Fangming Gao |
| author_facet | Qingqing Liu Jie Yuan Maerjiaen Bakeyi Jie Li Zilong Zhang Xiaohong Yang Fangming Gao |
| author_sort | Qingqing Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background. The twin epidemic of overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major public health problem globally, especially in China. Overweight/obese adults commonly coexist with T2DM, which is closely related to adverse health outcomes. Therefore, this study aimed to develop risk nomogram of T2DM in Chinese adults with overweight/obesity. Methods. We used prospective cohort study data for 82938 individuals aged ≥20 years free of T2DM collected between 2010 and 2016 and divided them into a training (n = 58056) and a validation set (n = 24882). Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model in training set, we identified optimized risk factors of T2DM, followed by the establishment of T2DM prediction nomogram. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical usefulness of nomogram were assessed. The results were assessed by internal validation in validation set. Results. Six independent risk factors of T2DM were identified and entered into the nomogram including age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and family history. The nomogram incorporating these six risk factors showed good discrimination regarding the training set, with a Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) of 0.859 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.850–0.868] and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862 (95% CI: 0.853–0.871). The calibration curves indicated well agreement between the probability as predicted by the nomogram and the actual probability. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the prediction nomogram was clinically useful. The consistent of findings was confirmed using the validation set. Conclusions. The nomogram showed accurate prediction for T2DM among Chinese population with overweight and obese and might aid in assessment risk of T2DM. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c8c8efa4ff3245db9c2951f6108485e0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-8337 1687-8345 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Endocrinology |
| spelling | doaj-art-c8c8efa4ff3245db9c2951f6108485e02025-02-03T01:28:27ZengWileyInternational Journal of Endocrinology1687-83371687-83452020-01-01202010.1155/2020/88995568899556Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in ChinaQingqing Liu0Jie Yuan1Maerjiaen Bakeyi2Jie Li3Zilong Zhang4Xiaohong Yang5Fangming Gao6Department of Cardiology of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang, ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang, ChinaDepartment of Respiratory and Intensive Care Medicine of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang, ChinaBackground. The twin epidemic of overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major public health problem globally, especially in China. Overweight/obese adults commonly coexist with T2DM, which is closely related to adverse health outcomes. Therefore, this study aimed to develop risk nomogram of T2DM in Chinese adults with overweight/obesity. Methods. We used prospective cohort study data for 82938 individuals aged ≥20 years free of T2DM collected between 2010 and 2016 and divided them into a training (n = 58056) and a validation set (n = 24882). Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model in training set, we identified optimized risk factors of T2DM, followed by the establishment of T2DM prediction nomogram. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical usefulness of nomogram were assessed. The results were assessed by internal validation in validation set. Results. Six independent risk factors of T2DM were identified and entered into the nomogram including age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and family history. The nomogram incorporating these six risk factors showed good discrimination regarding the training set, with a Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) of 0.859 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.850–0.868] and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862 (95% CI: 0.853–0.871). The calibration curves indicated well agreement between the probability as predicted by the nomogram and the actual probability. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the prediction nomogram was clinically useful. The consistent of findings was confirmed using the validation set. Conclusions. The nomogram showed accurate prediction for T2DM among Chinese population with overweight and obese and might aid in assessment risk of T2DM.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8899556 |
| spellingShingle | Qingqing Liu Jie Yuan Maerjiaen Bakeyi Jie Li Zilong Zhang Xiaohong Yang Fangming Gao Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in China International Journal of Endocrinology |
| title | Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in China |
| title_full | Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in China |
| title_fullStr | Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in China |
| title_short | Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in China |
| title_sort | development and validation of a nomogram to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in overweight and obese adults a prospective cohort study from 82938 adults in china |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8899556 |
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