How can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence? Findings from experiments with Long Short-Term Memory based algorithms

Inflation growth in Indonesia and other countries impacts the currency value and investors' purchasing power, particularly in the transportation sector. This research explores the impact of inflation growth in Indonesia and comparable nations on currency valuation and the purchasing power of in...

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Main Authors: Dinar Ajeng Kristiyanti, Willibrordus Bayu Nova Pramudya, Samuel Ady Sanjaya
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2024-11-01
Series:International Journal of Information Management Data Insights
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266709682400082X
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author Dinar Ajeng Kristiyanti
Willibrordus Bayu Nova Pramudya
Samuel Ady Sanjaya
author_facet Dinar Ajeng Kristiyanti
Willibrordus Bayu Nova Pramudya
Samuel Ady Sanjaya
author_sort Dinar Ajeng Kristiyanti
collection DOAJ
description Inflation growth in Indonesia and other countries impacts the currency value and investors' purchasing power, particularly in the transportation sector. This research explores the impact of inflation growth in Indonesia and comparable nations on currency valuation and the purchasing power of investors, with a focus on the transportation sector. Data collection was carried out from April to October 2023 by scraping stock data from several transportation stocks such as: AKSI.JK, CMPP.JK, SAFE.JK, SMDR.JK, TMAS.JK, and WEHA. The research primarily aims to forecast stock prices in Indonesia's transportation sector, utilizing data mining techniques within the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) framework, which includes stages such as business understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluation, and deployment. It employs the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm, assessing different hyperparameter activation functions (linear, ReLU, sigmoid, tanh) and optimizers (ADAM, ADAGRAD, NADAM, RMSPROP, ADADELTA, SGD, ADAMAX) to refine prediction accuracy. Findings demonstrate the ReLU activation function and ADAM optimizer's effectiveness, highlighted by evaluation metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0092918, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.06422, and R-Squared of 96 %. The study notably identifies significant growth in Temas (TMAS.JK) stock from April to October 2023, surpassing other sector stocks. Additionally, a web-based application for predicting transportation stock prices has been developed, facilitating user inputs like ticker, activation-optimizer choice, and date range.
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spelling doaj-art-c8a8a4b97a2a493cb4e597677e4b8b922025-08-20T02:38:10ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Information Management Data Insights2667-09682024-11-014210029310.1016/j.jjimei.2024.100293How can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence? Findings from experiments with Long Short-Term Memory based algorithmsDinar Ajeng Kristiyanti0Willibrordus Bayu Nova Pramudya1Samuel Ady Sanjaya2Corresponding author.; Departement Information System, Faculty of Engineering and Informatics, Universitas Multimedia Nusantara, Jl. Scientia Boulevard, Tangerang 15111, IndonesiaDepartement Information System, Faculty of Engineering and Informatics, Universitas Multimedia Nusantara, Jl. Scientia Boulevard, Tangerang 15111, IndonesiaDepartement Information System, Faculty of Engineering and Informatics, Universitas Multimedia Nusantara, Jl. Scientia Boulevard, Tangerang 15111, IndonesiaInflation growth in Indonesia and other countries impacts the currency value and investors' purchasing power, particularly in the transportation sector. This research explores the impact of inflation growth in Indonesia and comparable nations on currency valuation and the purchasing power of investors, with a focus on the transportation sector. Data collection was carried out from April to October 2023 by scraping stock data from several transportation stocks such as: AKSI.JK, CMPP.JK, SAFE.JK, SMDR.JK, TMAS.JK, and WEHA. The research primarily aims to forecast stock prices in Indonesia's transportation sector, utilizing data mining techniques within the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) framework, which includes stages such as business understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluation, and deployment. It employs the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm, assessing different hyperparameter activation functions (linear, ReLU, sigmoid, tanh) and optimizers (ADAM, ADAGRAD, NADAM, RMSPROP, ADADELTA, SGD, ADAMAX) to refine prediction accuracy. Findings demonstrate the ReLU activation function and ADAM optimizer's effectiveness, highlighted by evaluation metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0092918, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.06422, and R-Squared of 96 %. The study notably identifies significant growth in Temas (TMAS.JK) stock from April to October 2023, surpassing other sector stocks. Additionally, a web-based application for predicting transportation stock prices has been developed, facilitating user inputs like ticker, activation-optimizer choice, and date range.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266709682400082XActivationLong short-term memoryOptimizerPredictionTransportation stock
spellingShingle Dinar Ajeng Kristiyanti
Willibrordus Bayu Nova Pramudya
Samuel Ady Sanjaya
How can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence? Findings from experiments with Long Short-Term Memory based algorithms
International Journal of Information Management Data Insights
Activation
Long short-term memory
Optimizer
Prediction
Transportation stock
title How can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence? Findings from experiments with Long Short-Term Memory based algorithms
title_full How can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence? Findings from experiments with Long Short-Term Memory based algorithms
title_fullStr How can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence? Findings from experiments with Long Short-Term Memory based algorithms
title_full_unstemmed How can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence? Findings from experiments with Long Short-Term Memory based algorithms
title_short How can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence? Findings from experiments with Long Short-Term Memory based algorithms
title_sort how can we predict transportation stock prices using artificial intelligence findings from experiments with long short term memory based algorithms
topic Activation
Long short-term memory
Optimizer
Prediction
Transportation stock
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266709682400082X
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