Challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool-season annual grain crops
Frost and heat events at critical growth stages could cause large yield losses. These temperature extremes are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change in many parts of the broadacre cropping regions globally, presenting challenges to food production. For cool-season grain-growing...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Plant Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1613432/full |
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| author | Jonathan Richetti Victor Oscar Sadras Victor Oscar Sadras Victor Oscar Sadras Di He Brenton Leske Pengcheng Hu Yacob Beletse C. Mariano Cossani C. Mariano Cossani C. Mariano Cossani Ha Nguyen Bangyou Zheng David Matthews Deery M. Fernanda Dreccer Jeremy Whish Julianne Lilley |
| author_facet | Jonathan Richetti Victor Oscar Sadras Victor Oscar Sadras Victor Oscar Sadras Di He Brenton Leske Pengcheng Hu Yacob Beletse C. Mariano Cossani C. Mariano Cossani C. Mariano Cossani Ha Nguyen Bangyou Zheng David Matthews Deery M. Fernanda Dreccer Jeremy Whish Julianne Lilley |
| author_sort | Jonathan Richetti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Frost and heat events at critical growth stages could cause large yield losses. These temperature extremes are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change in many parts of the broadacre cropping regions globally, presenting challenges to food production. For cool-season grain-growing regions, where summers are already too hot, heat and frost risks can limit adaptation options. Capturing these stresses in crop models accurately is increasingly important for evaluating the timing, severity, and yield consequences of extreme events. However, most existing process-based models were not designed to simulate short-duration temperature extremes, limiting their ability to assess climate risk and inform adaptation to frost and heat. Yield responses to heat and frost are associated with pollen sterility, grain abortion, accelerated senescence, and grain filling. Six challenges limit current modelling approaches: (1) inadequate spatial and temporal resolution of extreme events, (2) threshold-based and non-linear crop responses, (3) interactions between phenology and management, (4) cumulative and interacting stress effects across development stages, (5) limited representation of genotype-specific sensitivities, and (6) reliance on daily temperature data. Addressing these challenges requires improved use of sub-daily climate data, incorporation of physiological damage mechanisms, and enhanced crop- and genotype-specific parameterisation. These developments are critical for improving crop yield predictions under extreme temperatures in the context of climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c68eba024ef74cfead2f111e8ee5e2f1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1664-462X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-c68eba024ef74cfead2f111e8ee5e2f12025-08-20T03:39:18ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2025-08-011610.3389/fpls.2025.16134321613432Challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool-season annual grain cropsJonathan Richetti0Victor Oscar Sadras1Victor Oscar Sadras2Victor Oscar Sadras3Di He4Brenton Leske5Pengcheng Hu6Yacob Beletse7C. Mariano Cossani8C. Mariano Cossani9C. Mariano Cossani10Ha Nguyen11Bangyou Zheng12David Matthews Deery13M. Fernanda Dreccer14Jeremy Whish15Julianne Lilley16Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Floreat, WA, AustraliaSouth Australian Research and Development Institute, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaSchool of Agriculture, Food and Wine, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaCollege of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Acton, ACT, AustraliaThe Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, South Perth, WA, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Acton, ACT, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Acton, ACT, AustraliaSouth Australian Research and Development Institute, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaSchool of Agriculture, Food and Wine, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaCollege of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Acton, ACT, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Sta Lucia, QLD, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Acton, ACT, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Sta Lucia, QLD, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Sta Lucia, QLD, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Acton, ACT, AustraliaFrost and heat events at critical growth stages could cause large yield losses. These temperature extremes are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change in many parts of the broadacre cropping regions globally, presenting challenges to food production. For cool-season grain-growing regions, where summers are already too hot, heat and frost risks can limit adaptation options. Capturing these stresses in crop models accurately is increasingly important for evaluating the timing, severity, and yield consequences of extreme events. However, most existing process-based models were not designed to simulate short-duration temperature extremes, limiting their ability to assess climate risk and inform adaptation to frost and heat. Yield responses to heat and frost are associated with pollen sterility, grain abortion, accelerated senescence, and grain filling. Six challenges limit current modelling approaches: (1) inadequate spatial and temporal resolution of extreme events, (2) threshold-based and non-linear crop responses, (3) interactions between phenology and management, (4) cumulative and interacting stress effects across development stages, (5) limited representation of genotype-specific sensitivities, and (6) reliance on daily temperature data. Addressing these challenges requires improved use of sub-daily climate data, incorporation of physiological damage mechanisms, and enhanced crop- and genotype-specific parameterisation. These developments are critical for improving crop yield predictions under extreme temperatures in the context of climate change.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1613432/fullwheatcanolabarleyoatchickpeacrop model |
| spellingShingle | Jonathan Richetti Victor Oscar Sadras Victor Oscar Sadras Victor Oscar Sadras Di He Brenton Leske Pengcheng Hu Yacob Beletse C. Mariano Cossani C. Mariano Cossani C. Mariano Cossani Ha Nguyen Bangyou Zheng David Matthews Deery M. Fernanda Dreccer Jeremy Whish Julianne Lilley Challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool-season annual grain crops Frontiers in Plant Science wheat canola barley oat chickpea crop model |
| title | Challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool-season annual grain crops |
| title_full | Challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool-season annual grain crops |
| title_fullStr | Challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool-season annual grain crops |
| title_full_unstemmed | Challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool-season annual grain crops |
| title_short | Challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool-season annual grain crops |
| title_sort | challenges in modelling the impact of frost and heat stress on the yield of cool season annual grain crops |
| topic | wheat canola barley oat chickpea crop model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1613432/full |
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