Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate change
Aquatic products are a crucial component of global food systems, and the impacts of climate change on aquaculture are becoming increasingly significant. Thus, it is essential to rigorously evaluate the sustainability of aquatic food production in the face of climate change. This study investigates t...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Aquaculture Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352513425001693 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849333653030567936 |
|---|---|
| author | Jie Wei Yakun Wang Kunhao Hong Qiaoyan Zhou Xinping Zhu Caihong Liu Lingyun Yu |
| author_facet | Jie Wei Yakun Wang Kunhao Hong Qiaoyan Zhou Xinping Zhu Caihong Liu Lingyun Yu |
| author_sort | Jie Wei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Aquatic products are a crucial component of global food systems, and the impacts of climate change on aquaculture are becoming increasingly significant. Thus, it is essential to rigorously evaluate the sustainability of aquatic food production in the face of climate change. This study investigates the potential effects of climate change on the aquaculture of the freshwater shrimp Macrobrachium rosenbergii in China, using advanced species distribution models (SDMs). By compiling a comprehensive dataset of aquaculture sites across China, we developed a robust set of SDMs to predict the suitability of aquaculture regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Our models demonstrated high predictive accuracy, revealing that the distribution of suitable aquaculture areas for M. rosenbergii is primarily determined by extreme temperature variations during the warmest and coldest months. Under present climate conditions, these areas are concentrated in eastern and southern China. However, projected climate changes could significantly reduce suitable regions, with losses ranging from approximately 6.00–29.11 %. These results highlight the critical need to consider the long-term effects of climate change when developing strategic plans for aquaculture management and production in China. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c68b7c7dd3674060b35fb73e1f74059a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2352-5134 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Aquaculture Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-c68b7c7dd3674060b35fb73e1f74059a2025-08-20T03:45:47ZengElsevierAquaculture Reports2352-51342025-07-014210278310.1016/j.aqrep.2025.102783Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate changeJie Wei0Yakun Wang1Kunhao Hong2Qiaoyan Zhou3Xinping Zhu4Caihong Liu5Lingyun Yu6Key Laboratory of Tropical & Subtropical Fishery Resources Application & Cultivation, Ministry of Agriculture, Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510380, ChinaKey Laboratory of Tropical & Subtropical Fishery Resources Application & Cultivation, Ministry of Agriculture, Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510380, ChinaKey Laboratory of Tropical & Subtropical Fishery Resources Application & Cultivation, Ministry of Agriculture, Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510380, ChinaKey Laboratory of Tropical & Subtropical Fishery Resources Application & Cultivation, Ministry of Agriculture, Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510380, ChinaKey Laboratory of Tropical & Subtropical Fishery Resources Application & Cultivation, Ministry of Agriculture, Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510380, ChinaGuangdong Hailantu Environmental Technology Research Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 511462, China; Corresponding authors.Key Laboratory of Tropical & Subtropical Fishery Resources Application & Cultivation, Ministry of Agriculture, Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510380, China; Corresponding authors.Aquatic products are a crucial component of global food systems, and the impacts of climate change on aquaculture are becoming increasingly significant. Thus, it is essential to rigorously evaluate the sustainability of aquatic food production in the face of climate change. This study investigates the potential effects of climate change on the aquaculture of the freshwater shrimp Macrobrachium rosenbergii in China, using advanced species distribution models (SDMs). By compiling a comprehensive dataset of aquaculture sites across China, we developed a robust set of SDMs to predict the suitability of aquaculture regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Our models demonstrated high predictive accuracy, revealing that the distribution of suitable aquaculture areas for M. rosenbergii is primarily determined by extreme temperature variations during the warmest and coldest months. Under present climate conditions, these areas are concentrated in eastern and southern China. However, projected climate changes could significantly reduce suitable regions, with losses ranging from approximately 6.00–29.11 %. These results highlight the critical need to consider the long-term effects of climate change when developing strategic plans for aquaculture management and production in China.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352513425001693AquacultureClimate changeHabitat suitabilityMacrobrachium rosenbergiiSpecies distribution model |
| spellingShingle | Jie Wei Yakun Wang Kunhao Hong Qiaoyan Zhou Xinping Zhu Caihong Liu Lingyun Yu Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate change Aquaculture Reports Aquaculture Climate change Habitat suitability Macrobrachium rosenbergii Species distribution model |
| title | Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate change |
| title_full | Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate change |
| title_short | Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate change |
| title_sort | predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in china under climate change |
| topic | Aquaculture Climate change Habitat suitability Macrobrachium rosenbergii Species distribution model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352513425001693 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiewei predictingaquaculturepotentialofanessentialshrimpviaspeciesdistributionmodelsinchinaunderclimatechange AT yakunwang predictingaquaculturepotentialofanessentialshrimpviaspeciesdistributionmodelsinchinaunderclimatechange AT kunhaohong predictingaquaculturepotentialofanessentialshrimpviaspeciesdistributionmodelsinchinaunderclimatechange AT qiaoyanzhou predictingaquaculturepotentialofanessentialshrimpviaspeciesdistributionmodelsinchinaunderclimatechange AT xinpingzhu predictingaquaculturepotentialofanessentialshrimpviaspeciesdistributionmodelsinchinaunderclimatechange AT caihongliu predictingaquaculturepotentialofanessentialshrimpviaspeciesdistributionmodelsinchinaunderclimatechange AT lingyunyu predictingaquaculturepotentialofanessentialshrimpviaspeciesdistributionmodelsinchinaunderclimatechange |