Cognitive and Spatial Forecasting Model for Maritime Migratory Incidents: SIFM
The security challenges associated with maritime migratory incidents in the Mediterranean Sea since the onset of the 21st century are considerable. Reports of such incidents are generated almost daily, leading to significant scientific interest, including that of this manuscript. This article introd...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Forecasting |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/7/2/21 |
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| author | Donatien Agbissoh Otote Antonio Vázquez Hoehne |
| author_facet | Donatien Agbissoh Otote Antonio Vázquez Hoehne |
| author_sort | Donatien Agbissoh Otote |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The security challenges associated with maritime migratory incidents in the Mediterranean Sea since the onset of the 21st century are considerable. Reports of such incidents are generated almost daily, leading to significant scientific interest, including that of this manuscript. This article introduces a forecasting model specifically designed to equip maritime security stakeholders around the Mediterranean Sea with a technical instrument for estimating the frequency of maritime migratory incidents. The proposed model, the SIFM, encompasses five methodological steps: Tessellation: The initial step involves partitioning the maritime area affected by these incidents into distinct cells. Subsidiary process: In this phase, the cells are classified according to the year in which incidents were recorded. Containment index: This index quantifies the magnitude of incidents within the designated cells. Incidence growth index: This metric further refines the forecasting methodology. Maritime migration incident forecasting: The concluding step establishes a forecast interval for the anticipated quantity of maritime migratory incidents. This systematic approach aims to enhance the understanding and prediction of maritime migratory incidents within the Mediterranean region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c633573d90be4b57bd7c0be80c38f515 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2571-9394 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forecasting |
| spelling | doaj-art-c633573d90be4b57bd7c0be80c38f5152025-08-20T03:24:36ZengMDPI AGForecasting2571-93942025-05-01722110.3390/forecast7020021Cognitive and Spatial Forecasting Model for Maritime Migratory Incidents: SIFMDonatien Agbissoh Otote0Antonio Vázquez Hoehne1Departamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartografía ETSI Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28031 Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartografía ETSI Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28031 Madrid, SpainThe security challenges associated with maritime migratory incidents in the Mediterranean Sea since the onset of the 21st century are considerable. Reports of such incidents are generated almost daily, leading to significant scientific interest, including that of this manuscript. This article introduces a forecasting model specifically designed to equip maritime security stakeholders around the Mediterranean Sea with a technical instrument for estimating the frequency of maritime migratory incidents. The proposed model, the SIFM, encompasses five methodological steps: Tessellation: The initial step involves partitioning the maritime area affected by these incidents into distinct cells. Subsidiary process: In this phase, the cells are classified according to the year in which incidents were recorded. Containment index: This index quantifies the magnitude of incidents within the designated cells. Incidence growth index: This metric further refines the forecasting methodology. Maritime migration incident forecasting: The concluding step establishes a forecast interval for the anticipated quantity of maritime migratory incidents. This systematic approach aims to enhance the understanding and prediction of maritime migratory incidents within the Mediterranean region.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/7/2/21tessellationsubsidiary processcontainment indexincidence growth indexMMI forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Donatien Agbissoh Otote Antonio Vázquez Hoehne Cognitive and Spatial Forecasting Model for Maritime Migratory Incidents: SIFM Forecasting tessellation subsidiary process containment index incidence growth index MMI forecasting |
| title | Cognitive and Spatial Forecasting Model for Maritime Migratory Incidents: SIFM |
| title_full | Cognitive and Spatial Forecasting Model for Maritime Migratory Incidents: SIFM |
| title_fullStr | Cognitive and Spatial Forecasting Model for Maritime Migratory Incidents: SIFM |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cognitive and Spatial Forecasting Model for Maritime Migratory Incidents: SIFM |
| title_short | Cognitive and Spatial Forecasting Model for Maritime Migratory Incidents: SIFM |
| title_sort | cognitive and spatial forecasting model for maritime migratory incidents sifm |
| topic | tessellation subsidiary process containment index incidence growth index MMI forecasting |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/7/2/21 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT donatienagbissohotote cognitiveandspatialforecastingmodelformaritimemigratoryincidentssifm AT antoniovazquezhoehne cognitiveandspatialforecastingmodelformaritimemigratoryincidentssifm |