Enhanced Influence of Late‐Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast Asia
Abstract Numerous studies have highlighted the simultaneous relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and weather/climate in Asia. However, the stability of the precursor signals in AO for Asian surface air temperature (SAT), which is important for short‐term climate prediction, has received...
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004958 |
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| author | Xin Zhou Tingting Han Huijun Wang Botao Zhou Shengping He |
| author_facet | Xin Zhou Tingting Han Huijun Wang Botao Zhou Shengping He |
| author_sort | Xin Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Numerous studies have highlighted the simultaneous relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and weather/climate in Asia. However, the stability of the precursor signals in AO for Asian surface air temperature (SAT), which is important for short‐term climate prediction, has received little attention. In this study, a strengthened relationship is identified between the late‐winter AO and the early spring SAT over North and Northeast Asia (NNA) around the 1990s. During 1990–2022, a positive (negative) phase of AO during late winter is generally followed by significant warming (cooling) anomalies in the NNA during early spring, whereas this relationship is insignificant during 1961–1987. Further result shows a good persistence of the late‐winter AO to early spring after the 1990s. Accordingly, the AO exerts a strengthened impact on Mongolian anticyclone and Asian westerly anomalies through modulation of a Rossby wave train that propagates from the Arctic to the NNA in early spring, leading to significant SAT anomalies at NNA. Additionally, the AO‐related temperature anomalies intensified in the stratosphere after the 1990s, linking AO and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). The intensified (weakened) SPV following positive (negative) AO facilitates warming (cooling) anomalies at NNA via downward‐propagating Eliassen‐Palm fluxes at wave number 1 and circumpolar westerlies in middle and lower troposphere. The seasonal persistence of AO and the strengthened relationship between AO and SPV synergistically enhance the influence of late‐winter AO on early spring SAT in the NNA, which might be attributed to the interdecadal changes in background circulation over the Arctic. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c5a3a9273c204fa6b2bd49b991d8ab8b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| spelling | doaj-art-c5a3a9273c204fa6b2bd49b991d8ab8b2025-01-28T15:40:38ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-01-01131n/an/a10.1029/2024EF004958Enhanced Influence of Late‐Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast AsiaXin Zhou0Tingting Han1Huijun Wang2Botao Zhou3Shengping He4State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaBjerknes Centre for Climate Research Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Bergen NorwayAbstract Numerous studies have highlighted the simultaneous relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and weather/climate in Asia. However, the stability of the precursor signals in AO for Asian surface air temperature (SAT), which is important for short‐term climate prediction, has received little attention. In this study, a strengthened relationship is identified between the late‐winter AO and the early spring SAT over North and Northeast Asia (NNA) around the 1990s. During 1990–2022, a positive (negative) phase of AO during late winter is generally followed by significant warming (cooling) anomalies in the NNA during early spring, whereas this relationship is insignificant during 1961–1987. Further result shows a good persistence of the late‐winter AO to early spring after the 1990s. Accordingly, the AO exerts a strengthened impact on Mongolian anticyclone and Asian westerly anomalies through modulation of a Rossby wave train that propagates from the Arctic to the NNA in early spring, leading to significant SAT anomalies at NNA. Additionally, the AO‐related temperature anomalies intensified in the stratosphere after the 1990s, linking AO and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). The intensified (weakened) SPV following positive (negative) AO facilitates warming (cooling) anomalies at NNA via downward‐propagating Eliassen‐Palm fluxes at wave number 1 and circumpolar westerlies in middle and lower troposphere. The seasonal persistence of AO and the strengthened relationship between AO and SPV synergistically enhance the influence of late‐winter AO on early spring SAT in the NNA, which might be attributed to the interdecadal changes in background circulation over the Arctic.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004958AOspring surface air temperature at North and Northeast Asiainterdecadal changesRossby wave trainstratospheric polar vortex |
| spellingShingle | Xin Zhou Tingting Han Huijun Wang Botao Zhou Shengping He Enhanced Influence of Late‐Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast Asia Earth's Future AO spring surface air temperature at North and Northeast Asia interdecadal changes Rossby wave train stratospheric polar vortex |
| title | Enhanced Influence of Late‐Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast Asia |
| title_full | Enhanced Influence of Late‐Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast Asia |
| title_fullStr | Enhanced Influence of Late‐Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhanced Influence of Late‐Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast Asia |
| title_short | Enhanced Influence of Late‐Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast Asia |
| title_sort | enhanced influence of late winter arctic oscillation on early spring temperature in north and northeast asia |
| topic | AO spring surface air temperature at North and Northeast Asia interdecadal changes Rossby wave train stratospheric polar vortex |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004958 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xinzhou enhancedinfluenceoflatewinterarcticoscillationonearlyspringtemperatureinnorthandnortheastasia AT tingtinghan enhancedinfluenceoflatewinterarcticoscillationonearlyspringtemperatureinnorthandnortheastasia AT huijunwang enhancedinfluenceoflatewinterarcticoscillationonearlyspringtemperatureinnorthandnortheastasia AT botaozhou enhancedinfluenceoflatewinterarcticoscillationonearlyspringtemperatureinnorthandnortheastasia AT shengpinghe enhancedinfluenceoflatewinterarcticoscillationonearlyspringtemperatureinnorthandnortheastasia |