Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022
Objective: There is a growing correlation between the rise in infectious diseases and climate change; however, little is known about the interactions and mixed effects of climate factors on infectious diseases. Method: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study spanning 108 consecutive months f...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025002828 |
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| author | Cuong Quoc Hoang Quang Phuong Huynh Nguyen Thao Phuong Huynh Nguyen Hieu Trung Nguyen Linh Thuy Hoang Giang Huong Vu Woong-Ki Kim Hai Duc Nguyen |
| author_facet | Cuong Quoc Hoang Quang Phuong Huynh Nguyen Thao Phuong Huynh Nguyen Hieu Trung Nguyen Linh Thuy Hoang Giang Huong Vu Woong-Ki Kim Hai Duc Nguyen |
| author_sort | Cuong Quoc Hoang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: There is a growing correlation between the rise in infectious diseases and climate change; however, little is known about the interactions and mixed effects of climate factors on infectious diseases. Method: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study spanning 108 consecutive months from 2014 to 2022 in Can Tho, Vietnam to identify common infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis, HIV, and COVID-19) and their associations with climate change and determine which common diseases presented concurrently with the COVID-19 period using multivariate linear regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis. Result: The five infectious diseases with the highest average incidence rates per 100,000 people were diarrhea; hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); dengue fever; viral hepatitis; and influenza. Positive associations with humidity were observed for dengue fever and HFMD. Temperature was positively associated with malaria. Negative associations were found between humidity and both chickenpox and tetanus. Diarrhea (AUC = 0.79; 95 % CL = 0.70–0.87) and dengue fever (AUC = 0.74; 95 % CL = 0.62–0.83) emerged as the most influential diseases both before and during the COVID-19 period. In our BKMR analysis, we found a significant association between the combined influence of temperature and humidity and the occurrence of dengue fever and HFMD, especially when all climate factors were at or above their 60th percentile relative to their values at the 50th percentile. Temperature emerged as the primary driver associated with the occurrence of infectious diseases. Conclusion: These findings underscore the importance of implementing robust surveillance, prevention, and control measures by public health authorities in Can Tho. Initiatives like vaccination campaigns, vector control programs, public education on hygiene practices, and strengthening healthcare infrastructure are crucial for mitigating the spread of infectious diseases and safeguarding public health in the region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c592d1620fdc42d191fc7bba519334ea |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj-art-c592d1620fdc42d191fc7bba519334ea2025-02-02T05:28:31ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402025-01-01112e41902Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022Cuong Quoc Hoang0Quang Phuong Huynh Nguyen1Thao Phuong Huynh Nguyen2Hieu Trung Nguyen3Linh Thuy Hoang4Giang Huong Vu5Woong-Ki Kim6Hai Duc Nguyen7Can Tho Department of Health, Viet Nam; Corresponding author.Can Tho Department of Health, Viet NamCan Tho Obstetrics Hospital, Viet NamCan Tho Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Viet NamCollege of Pharmacy, California Northstate University College of Pharmacy, CA, USAHong Bang Health Centers, Hai Phong, Viet NamDivision of Microbiology, Tulane National Primate Research Center, Tulane University, Louisiana, USA; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA; Corresponding author. Division of Microbiology, Tulane National Primate Research Center, Tulane University, Louisiana, USA.Division of Microbiology, Tulane National Primate Research Center, Tulane University, Louisiana, USA; Corresponding author.Objective: There is a growing correlation between the rise in infectious diseases and climate change; however, little is known about the interactions and mixed effects of climate factors on infectious diseases. Method: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study spanning 108 consecutive months from 2014 to 2022 in Can Tho, Vietnam to identify common infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis, HIV, and COVID-19) and their associations with climate change and determine which common diseases presented concurrently with the COVID-19 period using multivariate linear regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis. Result: The five infectious diseases with the highest average incidence rates per 100,000 people were diarrhea; hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); dengue fever; viral hepatitis; and influenza. Positive associations with humidity were observed for dengue fever and HFMD. Temperature was positively associated with malaria. Negative associations were found between humidity and both chickenpox and tetanus. Diarrhea (AUC = 0.79; 95 % CL = 0.70–0.87) and dengue fever (AUC = 0.74; 95 % CL = 0.62–0.83) emerged as the most influential diseases both before and during the COVID-19 period. In our BKMR analysis, we found a significant association between the combined influence of temperature and humidity and the occurrence of dengue fever and HFMD, especially when all climate factors were at or above their 60th percentile relative to their values at the 50th percentile. Temperature emerged as the primary driver associated with the occurrence of infectious diseases. Conclusion: These findings underscore the importance of implementing robust surveillance, prevention, and control measures by public health authorities in Can Tho. Initiatives like vaccination campaigns, vector control programs, public education on hygiene practices, and strengthening healthcare infrastructure are crucial for mitigating the spread of infectious diseases and safeguarding public health in the region.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025002828Infectious diseasesClimate changeClimate factorsHealth policy |
| spellingShingle | Cuong Quoc Hoang Quang Phuong Huynh Nguyen Thao Phuong Huynh Nguyen Hieu Trung Nguyen Linh Thuy Hoang Giang Huong Vu Woong-Ki Kim Hai Duc Nguyen Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022 Heliyon Infectious diseases Climate change Climate factors Health policy |
| title | Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022 |
| title_full | Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022 |
| title_fullStr | Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022 |
| title_short | Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022 |
| title_sort | identification of climate sensitive disease incidences in vietnam a longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022 |
| topic | Infectious diseases Climate change Climate factors Health policy |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025002828 |
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