Ensuring Africa’s Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to Resilience
Africa is grappling with severe food security challenges driven by population growth, climate change, land degradation, water scarcity, and socio-economic factors such as poverty and inequality. Climate variability and extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and heatwaves, are intensifyi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Foods |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/14/2/262 |
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| author | Belay Simane Thandi Kapwata Natasha Naidoo Guéladio Cissé Caradee Y. Wright Kiros Berhane |
| author_facet | Belay Simane Thandi Kapwata Natasha Naidoo Guéladio Cissé Caradee Y. Wright Kiros Berhane |
| author_sort | Belay Simane |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Africa is grappling with severe food security challenges driven by population growth, climate change, land degradation, water scarcity, and socio-economic factors such as poverty and inequality. Climate variability and extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and heatwaves, are intensifying food insecurity by reducing agricultural productivity, water availability, and livelihoods. This study examines the projected threats to food security in Africa, focusing on changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and the frequency of extreme weather events. Using an Exponential Growth Model, we estimated the population from 2020 to 2050 across Africa’s five sub-regions. The analysis assumes a 5% reduction in crop yields for every degree of warming above historical levels, with a minimum requirement of 225 kg of cereals per person per year. Climate change is a critical factor in Africa’s food systems, with an average temperature increase of approximately +0.3 °C per decade. By 2050, the total food required to meet the 2100-kilocalorie per adult equivalent per day will rise to 558.7 million tons annually, up from 438.3 million tons in 2020. We conclude that Africa’s current food systems are unsustainable, lacking resilience to climate shocks and relying heavily on rain-fed agriculture with inadequate infrastructure and technology. We call for a transformation in food systems through policy reform, technological and structural changes, solutions to land degradation, and proven methods of increasing crop yields that take the needs of communities into account. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c3c4ca79d1f442509109c5cf4f65342e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2304-8158 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Foods |
| spelling | doaj-art-c3c4ca79d1f442509109c5cf4f65342e2025-01-24T13:33:04ZengMDPI AGFoods2304-81582025-01-0114226210.3390/foods14020262Ensuring Africa’s Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to ResilienceBelay Simane0Thandi Kapwata1Natasha Naidoo2Guéladio Cissé3Caradee Y. Wright4Kiros Berhane5College of Development Studies, Center for Environment and Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Sidist Kilo Campus, Addis Ababa 1176, EthiopiaEnvironment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2006, South AfricaEnvironment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban 4091, South AfricaDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, CH-4002 Basel, SwitzerlandEnvironment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria 0084, South AfricaDepartment of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USAAfrica is grappling with severe food security challenges driven by population growth, climate change, land degradation, water scarcity, and socio-economic factors such as poverty and inequality. Climate variability and extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and heatwaves, are intensifying food insecurity by reducing agricultural productivity, water availability, and livelihoods. This study examines the projected threats to food security in Africa, focusing on changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and the frequency of extreme weather events. Using an Exponential Growth Model, we estimated the population from 2020 to 2050 across Africa’s five sub-regions. The analysis assumes a 5% reduction in crop yields for every degree of warming above historical levels, with a minimum requirement of 225 kg of cereals per person per year. Climate change is a critical factor in Africa’s food systems, with an average temperature increase of approximately +0.3 °C per decade. By 2050, the total food required to meet the 2100-kilocalorie per adult equivalent per day will rise to 558.7 million tons annually, up from 438.3 million tons in 2020. We conclude that Africa’s current food systems are unsustainable, lacking resilience to climate shocks and relying heavily on rain-fed agriculture with inadequate infrastructure and technology. We call for a transformation in food systems through policy reform, technological and structural changes, solutions to land degradation, and proven methods of increasing crop yields that take the needs of communities into account.https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/14/2/262food securityclimate changeAfricaclimate-resilient food systemssustainable agriculture |
| spellingShingle | Belay Simane Thandi Kapwata Natasha Naidoo Guéladio Cissé Caradee Y. Wright Kiros Berhane Ensuring Africa’s Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to Resilience Foods food security climate change Africa climate-resilient food systems sustainable agriculture |
| title | Ensuring Africa’s Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to Resilience |
| title_full | Ensuring Africa’s Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to Resilience |
| title_fullStr | Ensuring Africa’s Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to Resilience |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ensuring Africa’s Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to Resilience |
| title_short | Ensuring Africa’s Food Security by 2050: The Role of Population Growth, Climate-Resilient Strategies, and Putative Pathways to Resilience |
| title_sort | ensuring africa s food security by 2050 the role of population growth climate resilient strategies and putative pathways to resilience |
| topic | food security climate change Africa climate-resilient food systems sustainable agriculture |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/14/2/262 |
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