Prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in South Korea for sustainable transportation planning
Road freight modeling was conducted to project freight flow and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 16 administrative regions of South Korea through 2050. Origin-destination matrices were constructed using a gravity model for each region. The modeling covered seven product categories for both inter-re...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Heliyon |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025003172 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832573105194663936 |
|---|---|
| author | Hoseok Nam Jihye Byun Hyungseok Nam |
| author_facet | Hoseok Nam Jihye Byun Hyungseok Nam |
| author_sort | Hoseok Nam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Road freight modeling was conducted to project freight flow and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 16 administrative regions of South Korea through 2050. Origin-destination matrices were constructed using a gravity model for each region. The modeling covered seven product categories for both inter-regional and intra-regional freight transportation and was validated using 2017 data. The total future freight flow is projected to increase from 1399 million tons in 2019 to 1701 million tons by 2035. However, after peaking in 2035, it is expected to decline to 1618 million tons by 2050, indicating that population decline will impact product demand, causing a reduction in freight flow despite continued economic growth. GHG emissions are projected to slightly decrease from 19.0 million kgCO2eq. in 2025 to 18.6 million kgCO2eq. in 2035, followed by a steeper reduction to 15.5 million kgCO2eq. by 2050. This decline is attributed to both population decrease and long-term reductions in emission factors. Changes in freight flow between 2019 and 2050 are expected to be more pronounced within five regions in the capital and extended capital areas, which will account for approximately 50.3 % of the total freight flow due to population concentration. As a result, these five regions contribute 26.5 % of the total GHG reduction potential. The minimum economic growth rates required to maintain the same freight volume as in 2035 are estimated at 5 % for 2040, 13 % for 2045, and 26 % for 2050. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c3b28e0793074891bfc1ceb5ceef671d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj-art-c3b28e0793074891bfc1ceb5ceef671d2025-02-02T05:28:36ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402025-01-01112e41937Prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in South Korea for sustainable transportation planningHoseok Nam0Jihye Byun1Hyungseok Nam2Busan Development Institute, Busan, 47210, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul, 02504, Republic of Korea; Corresponding author.School of Mechanical Engineering, Kyungpook National University, 80 Daehak-ro, Daegu, 41566, Republic of Korea; Corresponding author.Road freight modeling was conducted to project freight flow and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 16 administrative regions of South Korea through 2050. Origin-destination matrices were constructed using a gravity model for each region. The modeling covered seven product categories for both inter-regional and intra-regional freight transportation and was validated using 2017 data. The total future freight flow is projected to increase from 1399 million tons in 2019 to 1701 million tons by 2035. However, after peaking in 2035, it is expected to decline to 1618 million tons by 2050, indicating that population decline will impact product demand, causing a reduction in freight flow despite continued economic growth. GHG emissions are projected to slightly decrease from 19.0 million kgCO2eq. in 2025 to 18.6 million kgCO2eq. in 2035, followed by a steeper reduction to 15.5 million kgCO2eq. by 2050. This decline is attributed to both population decrease and long-term reductions in emission factors. Changes in freight flow between 2019 and 2050 are expected to be more pronounced within five regions in the capital and extended capital areas, which will account for approximately 50.3 % of the total freight flow due to population concentration. As a result, these five regions contribute 26.5 % of the total GHG reduction potential. The minimum economic growth rates required to maintain the same freight volume as in 2035 are estimated at 5 % for 2040, 13 % for 2045, and 26 % for 2050.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025003172Population changeGravity modelRoad freight flowGreenhouse gas emissionSouth Korea |
| spellingShingle | Hoseok Nam Jihye Byun Hyungseok Nam Prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in South Korea for sustainable transportation planning Heliyon Population change Gravity model Road freight flow Greenhouse gas emission South Korea |
| title | Prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in South Korea for sustainable transportation planning |
| title_full | Prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in South Korea for sustainable transportation planning |
| title_fullStr | Prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in South Korea for sustainable transportation planning |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in South Korea for sustainable transportation planning |
| title_short | Prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in South Korea for sustainable transportation planning |
| title_sort | prediction greenhouse gas emissions from road freight flow in south korea for sustainable transportation planning |
| topic | Population change Gravity model Road freight flow Greenhouse gas emission South Korea |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025003172 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hoseoknam predictiongreenhousegasemissionsfromroadfreightflowinsouthkoreaforsustainabletransportationplanning AT jihyebyun predictiongreenhousegasemissionsfromroadfreightflowinsouthkoreaforsustainabletransportationplanning AT hyungseoknam predictiongreenhousegasemissionsfromroadfreightflowinsouthkoreaforsustainabletransportationplanning |