Posterior Positivity Distribution Analysis of Subclinical Bluetongue in the Eastern and North-Eastern States of India: A Wakeup Call for Outbreak Preparedness
Bluetongue (BT) is considered endemic in the southern states of India, with sporadic incidences reported from the northern, western and central parts of India. However, the eastern and north-eastern states of India have not experienced active disease so far. In the recent past, an extensive sero-epi...
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2024-12-01
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| author | Siddhartha Narayan Joardar Aritra Sanyal Ahmed Abd El Wahed Saibal Ray |
| author_facet | Siddhartha Narayan Joardar Aritra Sanyal Ahmed Abd El Wahed Saibal Ray |
| author_sort | Siddhartha Narayan Joardar |
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| description | Bluetongue (BT) is considered endemic in the southern states of India, with sporadic incidences reported from the northern, western and central parts of India. However, the eastern and north-eastern states of India have not experienced active disease so far. In the recent past, an extensive sero-epidemiological investigation was carried out in the eastern and north-eastern Indian states. With the aim of getting updated and refined estimates of positivity rates, the sero-surveillance data were analyzed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to calculate the positivity rates of various species across different states and agro-climatic zones. The posterior positivity distribution helped in accurately estimating the seroprevalence of bluetongue virus (BTV) among different species and regions. The MCMC method was applied for the first time in a BTV seroprevalence analysis that enhanced our understanding of infection dynamics, guided targeted interventions and supported better decision-making in bluetongue disease control, prevention and disease preparedness. This exercise is quite pertinent in the context of the recent upsurge of newer BTV strains, e.g., BTV-3 and BTV-8, in the western world. In short, as a powerful computational tool, MCMC could be used for accurate seroprevalence estimation, species-specific insights, regional analysis, enhanced decision-making and epidemiological insights for bluetongue. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c15140c7f3e64eaa8d4fca1cfea30dd8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| spelling | doaj-art-c15140c7f3e64eaa8d4fca1cfea30dd82025-01-24T13:52:16ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152024-12-011711810.3390/v17010018Posterior Positivity Distribution Analysis of Subclinical Bluetongue in the Eastern and North-Eastern States of India: A Wakeup Call for Outbreak PreparednessSiddhartha Narayan Joardar0Aritra Sanyal1Ahmed Abd El Wahed2Saibal Ray3Department of Veterinary Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, West Bengal University of Animal and Fishery Sciences, 37 Kshudiram Bose Sarani, P.O. Belgachia, Kolkata 700 037, West Bengal, IndiaInstitute of Astronomy, Space and Earth Science (IASES), P 177, CIT Road, Kolkata 700 054, West Bengal, IndiaInstitute of Animal Hygiene and Veterinary Public Health, University of Leipzig, An den Tierkliniken, D-04103 Leipzig, GermanyCentre for Cosmology, Astrophysics and Space Science (CCASS), GLA University, Mathura 281 406, Utter Pradesh, IndiaBluetongue (BT) is considered endemic in the southern states of India, with sporadic incidences reported from the northern, western and central parts of India. However, the eastern and north-eastern states of India have not experienced active disease so far. In the recent past, an extensive sero-epidemiological investigation was carried out in the eastern and north-eastern Indian states. With the aim of getting updated and refined estimates of positivity rates, the sero-surveillance data were analyzed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to calculate the positivity rates of various species across different states and agro-climatic zones. The posterior positivity distribution helped in accurately estimating the seroprevalence of bluetongue virus (BTV) among different species and regions. The MCMC method was applied for the first time in a BTV seroprevalence analysis that enhanced our understanding of infection dynamics, guided targeted interventions and supported better decision-making in bluetongue disease control, prevention and disease preparedness. This exercise is quite pertinent in the context of the recent upsurge of newer BTV strains, e.g., BTV-3 and BTV-8, in the western world. In short, as a powerful computational tool, MCMC could be used for accurate seroprevalence estimation, species-specific insights, regional analysis, enhanced decision-making and epidemiological insights for bluetongue.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/1/18bluetongueELISAnorth-eastern statessero-epidemiologycattlegoat |
| spellingShingle | Siddhartha Narayan Joardar Aritra Sanyal Ahmed Abd El Wahed Saibal Ray Posterior Positivity Distribution Analysis of Subclinical Bluetongue in the Eastern and North-Eastern States of India: A Wakeup Call for Outbreak Preparedness Viruses bluetongue ELISA north-eastern states sero-epidemiology cattle goat |
| title | Posterior Positivity Distribution Analysis of Subclinical Bluetongue in the Eastern and North-Eastern States of India: A Wakeup Call for Outbreak Preparedness |
| title_full | Posterior Positivity Distribution Analysis of Subclinical Bluetongue in the Eastern and North-Eastern States of India: A Wakeup Call for Outbreak Preparedness |
| title_fullStr | Posterior Positivity Distribution Analysis of Subclinical Bluetongue in the Eastern and North-Eastern States of India: A Wakeup Call for Outbreak Preparedness |
| title_full_unstemmed | Posterior Positivity Distribution Analysis of Subclinical Bluetongue in the Eastern and North-Eastern States of India: A Wakeup Call for Outbreak Preparedness |
| title_short | Posterior Positivity Distribution Analysis of Subclinical Bluetongue in the Eastern and North-Eastern States of India: A Wakeup Call for Outbreak Preparedness |
| title_sort | posterior positivity distribution analysis of subclinical bluetongue in the eastern and north eastern states of india a wakeup call for outbreak preparedness |
| topic | bluetongue ELISA north-eastern states sero-epidemiology cattle goat |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/1/18 |
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