Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register
The aim of the current study was to provide updated time-path equations for risk factors of type-2-diabetes-related cardiovascular complications for application in risk calculators and health economic models. Observational data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register were analysed using Generali...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Diabetes Research |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/241347 |
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| author | Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri Philip M. Clarke Ulf-G. Gerdtham Peter Nilsson Björn Eliasson Soffia Gudbjörnsdottir Katarina Steen Carlsson |
| author_facet | Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri Philip M. Clarke Ulf-G. Gerdtham Peter Nilsson Björn Eliasson Soffia Gudbjörnsdottir Katarina Steen Carlsson |
| author_sort | Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aim of the current study was to provide updated time-path equations for risk factors of type-2-diabetes-related cardiovascular complications for application in risk calculators and health economic models. Observational data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register were analysed using Generalized Method of Moments estimation for dynamic panel models (N=5,043, aged 25–70 years at diagnosis in 2001–2004). Validation was performed using persons diagnosed in 2005 (n=414). Results were compared with the UKPDS outcome model. The value of the risk factor in the previous year was the main predictor of the current value of the risk factor. People with high (low) values of risk factor in the year of diagnosis experienced a decreasing (increasing) trend over time. BMI was associated with elevations in all risk factors, while older age at diagnosis and being female generally corresponded to lower levels of risk factors. Updated time-path equations predicted risk factors more precisely than UKPDS outcome model equations in a Swedish population. Findings indicate new time paths for cardiovascular risk factors in the post-UKPDS era. The validation analysis confirmed the importance of updating the equations as new data become available; otherwise, the results of health economic analyses may be biased. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bed3d4e95d124c8e8eec2fb0fbf4cfb8 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2314-6745 2314-6753 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Diabetes Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-bed3d4e95d124c8e8eec2fb0fbf4cfb82025-08-20T02:18:36ZengWileyJournal of Diabetes Research2314-67452314-67532013-01-01201310.1155/2013/241347241347Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes RegisterAliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri0Philip M. Clarke1Ulf-G. Gerdtham2Peter Nilsson3Björn Eliasson4Soffia Gudbjörnsdottir5Katarina Steen Carlsson6Division of Health Economics, Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö University Hospital, Lund University, 20502 Malmö, SwedenSchool of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, AustraliaDivision of Health Economics, Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö University Hospital, Lund University, 20502 Malmö, SwedenDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Malmö University Hospital, Lund University, 20502 Malmö, SwedenDepartment of Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, University of Gothenburg, 41345 Göteborg, SwedenDepartment of Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, University of Gothenburg, 41345 Göteborg, SwedenDivision of Health Economics, Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö University Hospital, Lund University, 20502 Malmö, SwedenThe aim of the current study was to provide updated time-path equations for risk factors of type-2-diabetes-related cardiovascular complications for application in risk calculators and health economic models. Observational data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register were analysed using Generalized Method of Moments estimation for dynamic panel models (N=5,043, aged 25–70 years at diagnosis in 2001–2004). Validation was performed using persons diagnosed in 2005 (n=414). Results were compared with the UKPDS outcome model. The value of the risk factor in the previous year was the main predictor of the current value of the risk factor. People with high (low) values of risk factor in the year of diagnosis experienced a decreasing (increasing) trend over time. BMI was associated with elevations in all risk factors, while older age at diagnosis and being female generally corresponded to lower levels of risk factors. Updated time-path equations predicted risk factors more precisely than UKPDS outcome model equations in a Swedish population. Findings indicate new time paths for cardiovascular risk factors in the post-UKPDS era. The validation analysis confirmed the importance of updating the equations as new data become available; otherwise, the results of health economic analyses may be biased.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/241347 |
| spellingShingle | Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri Philip M. Clarke Ulf-G. Gerdtham Peter Nilsson Björn Eliasson Soffia Gudbjörnsdottir Katarina Steen Carlsson Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register Journal of Diabetes Research |
| title | Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register |
| title_full | Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register |
| title_short | Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register |
| title_sort | predicting changes in cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetes in the post ukpds era longitudinal analysis of the swedish national diabetes register |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/241347 |
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