Regression Models in Analysis of the Laryngeal Cancer Incidence Trends in Females in Podkarpackie Voivodship
Laryngeal cancer is the most common cancer of the head and neck. The main predisposing factor is exposure to cigarette smoke, alcohol, occupational factors and HPV infections. An analysis of the incidence of laryngeal cancer in Poland shows that since the beginning of the 1990s the incidence in fem...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Akademia Zamojska
2017-05-01
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| Series: | Barometr Regionalny |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://czaz.akademiazamojska.edu.pl/index.php/br/article/view/456 |
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| Summary: | Laryngeal cancer is the most common cancer of the head and neck. The main predisposing factor is exposure to cigarette smoke, alcohol, occupational factors and HPV infections. An analysis of the incidence of laryngeal cancer in Poland shows that since the beginning of the 1990s the incidence in females has been increasing, while in Podkarpackie Voivodship there is very slight increase. The aim of the work is to explore model-based assessment of dynamics of cancer incidence and to analyze the causes of changes in the incidence of laryngeal cancer in females in Podkarpackie Voivodship in the years 1990–2012, including lifestyle, socio-economic situation, and making comparisons with the incidence trends in the country as a whole. For this purpose, a retrospective analysis of cases of laryngeal cancer in Podkarpackie Voivodship in the years 1990–2012 has been performed. Data have been obtained from the publication of the Department of Epidemiology of Podkarpackie Center of Oncology in Rzeszow and the Centre of the Maria Skłodowska-Curie Institute of Oncology in Warsaw. Dynamics of cancer incidences derived from raw data is misleading. Therefore, to analyze the dynamics of the phenomenon three regression models have been used to remove random disturbance: ARX(1), SVR and Poisson regression model. The models have been compared based on standard statistics. In Podkarpackie the model-based absolute number of cases per year in females increased slightly between 1990–2012. In Poland, the model-based absolute number of cases in females increased over 30% in the last two decades in the years 1990–2012. The percentage share of cases of laryngeal cancer in females among all malignant cancers decreased by 0,5% to 0,4% in the years 1990–2012. The average age of the incidence for females increased from 55,6 years in 1989 to 65,4 in 2010. Dynamics analysis based on raw data solely may produce misleading results in opposition to a model based approach. A model-based approach seems to be relevant especially for the ill-behaved time series for such a number of cancer incidences.
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| ISSN: | 2956-686X |