Unfolding the potential of the ARIMA model in forecasting maize production in Tanzania
Purpose – This paper was set to develop a model for forecasting maize production in Tanzania using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach. The aim is to forecast future production of maize for the next 10 years to help identify the population at risk of food insecurity and qua...
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Emerald Publishing
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Business Analyst |
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| Online Access: | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/BAJ-07-2023-0055/full/pdf |
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| author | Joseph Lwaho Bahati Ilembo |
| author_facet | Joseph Lwaho Bahati Ilembo |
| author_sort | Joseph Lwaho |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose – This paper was set to develop a model for forecasting maize production in Tanzania using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach. The aim is to forecast future production of maize for the next 10 years to help identify the population at risk of food insecurity and quantify the anticipated maize shortage. Design/methodology/approach – Annual historical data on maize production (hg/ha) from 1961 to 2021 obtained from the FAOSTAT database were used. The ARIMA method is a robust framework for forecasting time-series data with non-seasonal components. The model was selected based on the Akaike Information Criteria corrected (AICc) minimum values and maximum log-likelihood. Model adequacy was checked using plots of residuals and the Ljung-Box test. Findings – The results suggest that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the most suitable model to forecast maize production in Tanzania. The selected model proved efficient in forecasting maize production in the coming years and is recommended for application. Originality/value – The study used partially processed secondary data to fit for Time series analysis using ARIMA (1,1,1) and hence reliable and conclusive results. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bda1c40d706c40caaac9409aab4b934c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0973-211X 2754-6721 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Business Analyst |
| spelling | doaj-art-bda1c40d706c40caaac9409aab4b934c2025-02-03T14:29:22ZengEmerald PublishingBusiness Analyst0973-211X2754-67212023-11-0144212813910.1108/BAJ-07-2023-0055Unfolding the potential of the ARIMA model in forecasting maize production in TanzaniaJoseph Lwaho0Bahati Ilembo1Department of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, Mzumbe University, Morogoro, United Republic of TanzaniaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, Mzumbe University, Morogoro, United Republic of TanzaniaPurpose – This paper was set to develop a model for forecasting maize production in Tanzania using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach. The aim is to forecast future production of maize for the next 10 years to help identify the population at risk of food insecurity and quantify the anticipated maize shortage. Design/methodology/approach – Annual historical data on maize production (hg/ha) from 1961 to 2021 obtained from the FAOSTAT database were used. The ARIMA method is a robust framework for forecasting time-series data with non-seasonal components. The model was selected based on the Akaike Information Criteria corrected (AICc) minimum values and maximum log-likelihood. Model adequacy was checked using plots of residuals and the Ljung-Box test. Findings – The results suggest that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the most suitable model to forecast maize production in Tanzania. The selected model proved efficient in forecasting maize production in the coming years and is recommended for application. Originality/value – The study used partially processed secondary data to fit for Time series analysis using ARIMA (1,1,1) and hence reliable and conclusive results.https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/BAJ-07-2023-0055/full/pdfARIMATime seriesMaize productionForecast |
| spellingShingle | Joseph Lwaho Bahati Ilembo Unfolding the potential of the ARIMA model in forecasting maize production in Tanzania Business Analyst ARIMA Time series Maize production Forecast |
| title | Unfolding the potential of the ARIMA model in forecasting maize production in Tanzania |
| title_full | Unfolding the potential of the ARIMA model in forecasting maize production in Tanzania |
| title_fullStr | Unfolding the potential of the ARIMA model in forecasting maize production in Tanzania |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unfolding the potential of the ARIMA model in forecasting maize production in Tanzania |
| title_short | Unfolding the potential of the ARIMA model in forecasting maize production in Tanzania |
| title_sort | unfolding the potential of the arima model in forecasting maize production in tanzania |
| topic | ARIMA Time series Maize production Forecast |
| url | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/BAJ-07-2023-0055/full/pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT josephlwaho unfoldingthepotentialofthearimamodelinforecastingmaizeproductionintanzania AT bahatiilembo unfoldingthepotentialofthearimamodelinforecastingmaizeproductionintanzania |