Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure
Introduction: China had already experienced two COVID-19 epidemics since the promulgation of 10 new prevention and control measures in December 2022. Methodology: In response to the current frequent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants in China and the gradual rel...
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The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
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| Online Access: | https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/19058 |
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| author | Mengxuan Lin Pengyuan Nie Qunjiao Yan Xinying Du Jinquan Chen Yaqing Jin Ligui Wang Lei Wang |
| author_facet | Mengxuan Lin Pengyuan Nie Qunjiao Yan Xinying Du Jinquan Chen Yaqing Jin Ligui Wang Lei Wang |
| author_sort | Mengxuan Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
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Introduction: China had already experienced two COVID-19 epidemics since the promulgation of 10 new prevention and control measures in December 2022.
Methodology: In response to the current frequent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants in China and the gradual relaxation of prevention and control policies, we built and ran a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed-susceptible-quarantined model incorporating self-isolation to predict future cases of COVID-19.
Results: Four waves of outbreaks were predicted to occur in November 2023, and in April, July, and November 2024. The first two waves were predicted to be more severe, with the maximum number of infected cases reaching 18.97% (269 million) and 8.77% (124 million) of the country’s population, respectively, while the rest were predicted to affect a maximum of < 3%.
Conclusions: Future outbreaks are expected to occur at shorter intervals but last for longer durations. COVID-19 epidemics in China are expected to subside after November 2024.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ba9d9f7439214cf9a59ccb69737e8c9d |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1972-2680 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
| spelling | doaj-art-ba9d9f7439214cf9a59ccb69737e8c9d2025-08-20T02:57:17ZengThe Journal of Infection in Developing CountriesJournal of Infection in Developing Countries1972-26802025-01-01190110.3855/jidc.19058Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failureMengxuan Lin0Pengyuan Nie1Qunjiao Yan2Xinying Du3Jinquan Chen4Yaqing Jin5Ligui Wang6Lei Wang7Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaChinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaChinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaJinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, ChinaChinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China Introduction: China had already experienced two COVID-19 epidemics since the promulgation of 10 new prevention and control measures in December 2022. Methodology: In response to the current frequent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants in China and the gradual relaxation of prevention and control policies, we built and ran a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed-susceptible-quarantined model incorporating self-isolation to predict future cases of COVID-19. Results: Four waves of outbreaks were predicted to occur in November 2023, and in April, July, and November 2024. The first two waves were predicted to be more severe, with the maximum number of infected cases reaching 18.97% (269 million) and 8.77% (124 million) of the country’s population, respectively, while the rest were predicted to affect a maximum of < 3%. Conclusions: Future outbreaks are expected to occur at shorter intervals but last for longer durations. COVID-19 epidemics in China are expected to subside after November 2024. https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/19058Antibody failureChinaCOVID-19fluctuating epidemicSEIR model |
| spellingShingle | Mengxuan Lin Pengyuan Nie Qunjiao Yan Xinying Du Jinquan Chen Yaqing Jin Ligui Wang Lei Wang Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure Journal of Infection in Developing Countries Antibody failure China COVID-19 fluctuating epidemic SEIR model |
| title | Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure |
| title_full | Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure |
| title_fullStr | Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure |
| title_short | Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure |
| title_sort | long term predictions of covid 19 waves in china based on an improved seirs q model of antibody failure |
| topic | Antibody failure China COVID-19 fluctuating epidemic SEIR model |
| url | https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/19058 |
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