Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate Models
Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Gödel’s theorem and Rosen’s definition of complexity and predictabil...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/878249 |
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| author | D. T. Mihailović G. Mimić I. Arsenić |
| author_facet | D. T. Mihailović G. Mimić I. Arsenić |
| author_sort | D. T. Mihailović |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Gödel’s theorem and Rosen’s definition of complexity and predictability is discussed. Occurrence of chaos in computing the environmental interface temperature from the energy balance equation given in a difference form is pointed out. A coupled system of equations, often used in climate models, was analyzed. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponent mostly has positive values allowing presence of chaos in this system. The horizontal energy exchange between environmental interfaces, which is described by the dynamics of driven coupled oscillators, was analyzed. Their behavior and synchronization, when a perturbation is introduced in the system, as a function of the coupling parameter, the logistic parameter, and the parameter of exchange, were studied calculating the Lyapunov exponent under simulations with the closed contour of N=100 environmental interfaces. Finally, we have explored possible differences in complexities of two global and two regional climate models using their air temperature and precipitation output time series. The complexities were obtained with the algorithm for calculating the Kolmogorov complexity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ba199120a0a94383b99ad322101e77fc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-ba199120a0a94383b99ad322101e77fc2025-02-03T01:03:49ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172014-01-01201410.1155/2014/878249878249Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate ModelsD. T. Mihailović0G. Mimić1I. Arsenić2Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Square 8, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaDepartment of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Square 5, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Square 8, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaSome issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Gödel’s theorem and Rosen’s definition of complexity and predictability is discussed. Occurrence of chaos in computing the environmental interface temperature from the energy balance equation given in a difference form is pointed out. A coupled system of equations, often used in climate models, was analyzed. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponent mostly has positive values allowing presence of chaos in this system. The horizontal energy exchange between environmental interfaces, which is described by the dynamics of driven coupled oscillators, was analyzed. Their behavior and synchronization, when a perturbation is introduced in the system, as a function of the coupling parameter, the logistic parameter, and the parameter of exchange, were studied calculating the Lyapunov exponent under simulations with the closed contour of N=100 environmental interfaces. Finally, we have explored possible differences in complexities of two global and two regional climate models using their air temperature and precipitation output time series. The complexities were obtained with the algorithm for calculating the Kolmogorov complexity.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/878249 |
| spellingShingle | D. T. Mihailović G. Mimić I. Arsenić Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate Models Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate Models |
| title_full | Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate Models |
| title_fullStr | Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate Models |
| title_short | Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate Models |
| title_sort | climate predictions the chaos and complexity in climate models |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/878249 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dtmihailovic climatepredictionsthechaosandcomplexityinclimatemodels AT gmimic climatepredictionsthechaosandcomplexityinclimatemodels AT iarsenic climatepredictionsthechaosandcomplexityinclimatemodels |