Statistical Distribution of Urban Area Reveals a Converging Trend of Global Urban Land Expansion
Abstract Urban land expansion is a major driver of many environmental and societal changes that challenge human well‐being and sustainable development, but its evolutionary process and dynamics are neither clear nor well‐integrated into urban science quantitatively. We analyzed the global urban exte...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005130 |
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| author | Shengjie Hu Zhenlei Yang Sergio Andres Galindo Torres Zipeng Wang Haoying Han Yoshihide Wada Thomas Cherico Wanger Ling Li |
| author_facet | Shengjie Hu Zhenlei Yang Sergio Andres Galindo Torres Zipeng Wang Haoying Han Yoshihide Wada Thomas Cherico Wanger Ling Li |
| author_sort | Shengjie Hu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Urban land expansion is a major driver of many environmental and societal changes that challenge human well‐being and sustainable development, but its evolutionary process and dynamics are neither clear nor well‐integrated into urban science quantitatively. We analyzed the global urban extent data based on nighttime lights to examine the statistical distribution of urban land area at the global scale, and in 13 regions and countries over 29 years. The results reveal a converging temporal trend in urban land expansion from subnational to global scales, characterized by a coherent shift of urban area distribution from an initial power law toward an exponential distribution. This trend is well captured by a unified mathematical model based on the shifted power law distribution function and is reflected in the gradual predominance of medium‐size cities over small‐size cities in the configuration of urban systems across the world. The shift of urban area distributions bears the consequence of reduced urban system stability and resilience, and can be linked to increasing exposure of urban populations to extreme heat events and air pollution. These changes are likely to be driven by the increasing influence of external economies of scale associated with globalization. The findings challenge the status quo of land urbanization practices and emphasize the importance of medium‐size cities in urban planning. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b9123e8580c94ddb9eb0dde2e373cbcd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-b9123e8580c94ddb9eb0dde2e373cbcd2025-01-28T15:40:38ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-01-01131n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005130Statistical Distribution of Urban Area Reveals a Converging Trend of Global Urban Land ExpansionShengjie Hu0Zhenlei Yang1Sergio Andres Galindo Torres2Zipeng Wang3Haoying Han4Yoshihide Wada5Thomas Cherico Wanger6Ling Li7School of Engineering Westlake University Hangzhou ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaSchool of Engineering Westlake University Hangzhou ChinaSchool of Science Westlake University Hangzhou ChinaCenter for Balance Architecture Zhejiang University Hangzhou ChinaClimate and Livability Center for Desert Agriculture Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal Saudi ArabiaSchool of Engineering Westlake University Hangzhou ChinaSchool of Engineering Westlake University Hangzhou ChinaAbstract Urban land expansion is a major driver of many environmental and societal changes that challenge human well‐being and sustainable development, but its evolutionary process and dynamics are neither clear nor well‐integrated into urban science quantitatively. We analyzed the global urban extent data based on nighttime lights to examine the statistical distribution of urban land area at the global scale, and in 13 regions and countries over 29 years. The results reveal a converging temporal trend in urban land expansion from subnational to global scales, characterized by a coherent shift of urban area distribution from an initial power law toward an exponential distribution. This trend is well captured by a unified mathematical model based on the shifted power law distribution function and is reflected in the gradual predominance of medium‐size cities over small‐size cities in the configuration of urban systems across the world. The shift of urban area distributions bears the consequence of reduced urban system stability and resilience, and can be linked to increasing exposure of urban populations to extreme heat events and air pollution. These changes are likely to be driven by the increasing influence of external economies of scale associated with globalization. The findings challenge the status quo of land urbanization practices and emphasize the importance of medium‐size cities in urban planning.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005130urban land expansionurban area distributioncross‐scale convergent evolutioneconomies of scalesustainable development |
| spellingShingle | Shengjie Hu Zhenlei Yang Sergio Andres Galindo Torres Zipeng Wang Haoying Han Yoshihide Wada Thomas Cherico Wanger Ling Li Statistical Distribution of Urban Area Reveals a Converging Trend of Global Urban Land Expansion Earth's Future urban land expansion urban area distribution cross‐scale convergent evolution economies of scale sustainable development |
| title | Statistical Distribution of Urban Area Reveals a Converging Trend of Global Urban Land Expansion |
| title_full | Statistical Distribution of Urban Area Reveals a Converging Trend of Global Urban Land Expansion |
| title_fullStr | Statistical Distribution of Urban Area Reveals a Converging Trend of Global Urban Land Expansion |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical Distribution of Urban Area Reveals a Converging Trend of Global Urban Land Expansion |
| title_short | Statistical Distribution of Urban Area Reveals a Converging Trend of Global Urban Land Expansion |
| title_sort | statistical distribution of urban area reveals a converging trend of global urban land expansion |
| topic | urban land expansion urban area distribution cross‐scale convergent evolution economies of scale sustainable development |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005130 |
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