Impact of Parameter Uncertainties on Power Electronic Device Lifetime Predictions
Properly addressing uncertainties in reliability analysis is essential for realistic lifetime predictions of power devices. This paper investigates parameter uncertainties on the lifetime estimation of power devices using an empirical lifetime model and Monte Carlo simulations. Key parameters such a...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IEEE
2025-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11026042/ |
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| Summary: | Properly addressing uncertainties in reliability analysis is essential for realistic lifetime predictions of power devices. This paper investigates parameter uncertainties on the lifetime estimation of power devices using an empirical lifetime model and Monte Carlo simulations. Key parameters such as junction temperature swings (<inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\Delta T_{j}$ </tex-math></inline-formula>), minimum junction temperature (<inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$T_{j,\min }$ </tex-math></inline-formula>), and lifetime model constants are analyzed for their impacts on lifetime outcomes. Sensitivity analysis reveals significant effects from variations in parameters like <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\beta _{1}$ </tex-math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\Delta T_{j}$ </tex-math></inline-formula> on the expected lifetime and its variability. Simultaneous variations across all parameters further highlight the dominant influence of <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\beta _{1}$ </tex-math></inline-formula> on lifetime predictions. The analysis suggests that a <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$5\,\%$ </tex-math></inline-formula> uncertainty margin appears to offer a balanced trade-off between realistic lifetime estimations and predictability. This Study underscores the importance of considering parameter uncertainties for precise reliability evaluations. It addresses a critical gap by examining the rationale behind commonly assumed <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$5\,\%$ </tex-math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$10\,\%$ </tex-math></inline-formula> uncertainty margins in lifetime modeling. By systematically evaluating these margins’ impacts on key reliability parameters, the study provides a framework for selecting reasonable assumptions based on physical insights and variability analysis, advancing the reliability modeling of power devices. |
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| ISSN: | 2169-3536 |