Development of Novel Nomograms to Predict 5- and 7-Year Biochemical-Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients After Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy
Background: The aim of this study was to develop nomograms predicting 5- and 7-year biochemical-recurrence (BCR)-free survival in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with carbon-ion radiotherapy (CIRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 785 hig...
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2025-01-01
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| author | Takanobu Utsumi Hiroyoshi Suzuki Masaru Wakatsuki Kana Kobayashi Atsushi Okato Mio Nakajima Shuri Aoki Taisuke Sumiya Tomohiko Ichikawa Koichiro Akakura Hiroshi Tsuji Shigeru Yamada Hitoshi Ishikawa |
| author_facet | Takanobu Utsumi Hiroyoshi Suzuki Masaru Wakatsuki Kana Kobayashi Atsushi Okato Mio Nakajima Shuri Aoki Taisuke Sumiya Tomohiko Ichikawa Koichiro Akakura Hiroshi Tsuji Shigeru Yamada Hitoshi Ishikawa |
| author_sort | Takanobu Utsumi |
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| description | Background: The aim of this study was to develop nomograms predicting 5- and 7-year biochemical-recurrence (BCR)-free survival in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with carbon-ion radiotherapy (CIRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 785 high-risk PCa patients treated with CIRT and ADT. Based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model, two nomograms predicting 5- and 7-year BCR-free survival were developed and internally validated. The ability of each nomogram to predict BCR-free survival was determined by calculating the area under the survival curve (AUC). Results: The 5- and 7-year BCR-free survival rates were 92.1% and 89.3%, respectively. Age, prostate-specific antigen level, clinical T stage, and Gleason score were incorporated into the nomogram predicting 5-year BCR-free survival. In addition to these variables, the percentage of positive biopsy cores was also added to the nomogram predicting 7-year BCR-free survival. The AUC value of each nomogram showed suboptimal-to-good discrimination. Conclusions: We developed the first nomograms accurately predicting BCR-free survival in high-risk PCa patients treated with CIRT and ADT. These nomograms will enable adequate understanding and explanation of BCR-free survival to patients when clinicians use them. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b830060d5726432480d0a414843557bd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
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| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-b830060d5726432480d0a414843557bd2025-01-24T13:20:53ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-01-0115280410.3390/app15020804Development of Novel Nomograms to Predict 5- and 7-Year Biochemical-Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients After Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy and Androgen Deprivation TherapyTakanobu Utsumi0Hiroyoshi Suzuki1Masaru Wakatsuki2Kana Kobayashi3Atsushi Okato4Mio Nakajima5Shuri Aoki6Taisuke Sumiya7Tomohiko Ichikawa8Koichiro Akakura9Hiroshi Tsuji10Shigeru Yamada11Hitoshi Ishikawa12Department of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-Shi 285-8741, JapanDepartment of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-Shi 285-8741, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba-Shi 260-8670, JapanDepartment of Urology, Japan Community Healthcare Organization Mishima General Hospital, Mishima-Shi 411-0801, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanQST Hospital, National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology, Chiba-Shi 263-8555, JapanBackground: The aim of this study was to develop nomograms predicting 5- and 7-year biochemical-recurrence (BCR)-free survival in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with carbon-ion radiotherapy (CIRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 785 high-risk PCa patients treated with CIRT and ADT. Based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model, two nomograms predicting 5- and 7-year BCR-free survival were developed and internally validated. The ability of each nomogram to predict BCR-free survival was determined by calculating the area under the survival curve (AUC). Results: The 5- and 7-year BCR-free survival rates were 92.1% and 89.3%, respectively. Age, prostate-specific antigen level, clinical T stage, and Gleason score were incorporated into the nomogram predicting 5-year BCR-free survival. In addition to these variables, the percentage of positive biopsy cores was also added to the nomogram predicting 7-year BCR-free survival. The AUC value of each nomogram showed suboptimal-to-good discrimination. Conclusions: We developed the first nomograms accurately predicting BCR-free survival in high-risk PCa patients treated with CIRT and ADT. These nomograms will enable adequate understanding and explanation of BCR-free survival to patients when clinicians use them.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/2/804prostate cancerhigh-risknomogramcarbon-ion radiotherapyandrogen deprivation therapy |
| spellingShingle | Takanobu Utsumi Hiroyoshi Suzuki Masaru Wakatsuki Kana Kobayashi Atsushi Okato Mio Nakajima Shuri Aoki Taisuke Sumiya Tomohiko Ichikawa Koichiro Akakura Hiroshi Tsuji Shigeru Yamada Hitoshi Ishikawa Development of Novel Nomograms to Predict 5- and 7-Year Biochemical-Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients After Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy Applied Sciences prostate cancer high-risk nomogram carbon-ion radiotherapy androgen deprivation therapy |
| title | Development of Novel Nomograms to Predict 5- and 7-Year Biochemical-Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients After Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy |
| title_full | Development of Novel Nomograms to Predict 5- and 7-Year Biochemical-Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients After Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy |
| title_fullStr | Development of Novel Nomograms to Predict 5- and 7-Year Biochemical-Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients After Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of Novel Nomograms to Predict 5- and 7-Year Biochemical-Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients After Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy |
| title_short | Development of Novel Nomograms to Predict 5- and 7-Year Biochemical-Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients After Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy |
| title_sort | development of novel nomograms to predict 5 and 7 year biochemical recurrence free survival in high risk prostate cancer patients after carbon ion radiotherapy and androgen deprivation therapy |
| topic | prostate cancer high-risk nomogram carbon-ion radiotherapy androgen deprivation therapy |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/2/804 |
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