Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM).
Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasib...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2024-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0300005&type=printable |
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| author | James F Burke Luciana L Copeland Jeremy B Sussman Rodney A Hayward Alden L Gross Emily M Briceño Rachael Whitney Bruno J Giordani Mitchell S V Elkind Jennifer J Manly Rebecca F Gottesman Darrell J Gaskin Stephen Sidney Kristine Yaffe Ralph L Sacco Susan R Heckbert Timothy M Hughes Andrzej T Galecki Deborah A Levine |
| author_facet | James F Burke Luciana L Copeland Jeremy B Sussman Rodney A Hayward Alden L Gross Emily M Briceño Rachael Whitney Bruno J Giordani Mitchell S V Elkind Jennifer J Manly Rebecca F Gottesman Darrell J Gaskin Stephen Sidney Kristine Yaffe Ralph L Sacco Susan R Heckbert Timothy M Hughes Andrzej T Galecki Deborah A Levine |
| author_sort | James F Burke |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b78f6b0ea3e547ca803edd2524e74981 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-b78f6b0ea3e547ca803edd2524e749812025-01-24T05:31:09ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032024-01-01195e030000510.1371/journal.pone.0300005Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM).James F BurkeLuciana L CopelandJeremy B SussmanRodney A HaywardAlden L GrossEmily M BriceñoRachael WhitneyBruno J GiordaniMitchell S V ElkindJennifer J ManlyRebecca F GottesmanDarrell J GaskinStephen SidneyKristine YaffeRalph L SaccoSusan R HeckbertTimothy M HughesAndrzej T GaleckiDeborah A LevineStrategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0300005&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | James F Burke Luciana L Copeland Jeremy B Sussman Rodney A Hayward Alden L Gross Emily M Briceño Rachael Whitney Bruno J Giordani Mitchell S V Elkind Jennifer J Manly Rebecca F Gottesman Darrell J Gaskin Stephen Sidney Kristine Yaffe Ralph L Sacco Susan R Heckbert Timothy M Hughes Andrzej T Galecki Deborah A Levine Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM). PLoS ONE |
| title | Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM). |
| title_full | Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM). |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM). |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM). |
| title_short | Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM). |
| title_sort | development and validation of the michigan chronic disease simulation model microsim |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0300005&type=printable |
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