A new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugs
ObjectivesThe use of anticoagulants in patients increases the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). Our aim was to identify factors associated with cerebral hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulants and to develop a predictive model that would provide an effective tool for the clinical assessment...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Neurology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2025.1475956/full |
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| author | Fuxin Ma Zhiwei Zeng Jiana Chen Chengfu Guan Wenlin Xu Chunhua Wang Jinhua Zhang |
| author_facet | Fuxin Ma Zhiwei Zeng Jiana Chen Chengfu Guan Wenlin Xu Chunhua Wang Jinhua Zhang |
| author_sort | Fuxin Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ObjectivesThe use of anticoagulants in patients increases the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). Our aim was to identify factors associated with cerebral hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulants and to develop a predictive model that would provide an effective tool for the clinical assessment of cerebral hemorrhage.MethodsIn our study, indications for patients receiving anticoagulation included AF, VTE, stroke/TIA, arteriosclerosis, peripheral vascular diseases (PVD), prosthetic mechanical valve replacement, etc. Data were obtained from the patient record hospitalization system. Logistic regression, area under the curve (AUC), and bar graphs were used to build predictive models in the development cohort. The models were internally validated, analytically characterized, and calibrated using AUC, calibration curves, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.ResultsThis single-center retrospective study included 617 patients treated with anticoagulants. Multifactorial analysis showed that male, leukoaraiosis, high risk of falls, APTT ≥ 45.4 s, and FIB ≥ 4.2 g/L were independent risk factors for cerebral hemorrhage, and β-blockers were protective factors. The model was constructed using these six factors with an AUC value of 0.883. In the validation cohort, the model had good discriminatory power (AUC = 0.801) and calibration power. Five-fold cross-validation showed Kappa of 0.483.ConclusionPredictive models based on a patient’s medical record hospitalization system can be used to identify patients at risk for cerebral hemorrhage. Identifying people at risk can provide proactive interventions for patients. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b74a1fc774d54ad7aef9809a0ec5c738 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1664-2295 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Neurology |
| spelling | doaj-art-b74a1fc774d54ad7aef9809a0ec5c7382025-01-22T05:19:20ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Neurology1664-22952025-01-011610.3389/fneur.2025.14759561475956A new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugsFuxin Ma0Zhiwei Zeng1Jiana Chen2Chengfu Guan3Wenlin Xu4Chunhua Wang5Jinhua Zhang6Department of Pharmacy, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, ChinaDepartment of Pharmacy, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, ChinaDepartment of Pharmacy, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, ChinaDepartment of Pharmacy, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, ChinaDepartment of Pharmacy, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, ChinaDepartment of Neurosurgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, ChinaDepartment of Pharmacy, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, ChinaObjectivesThe use of anticoagulants in patients increases the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). Our aim was to identify factors associated with cerebral hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulants and to develop a predictive model that would provide an effective tool for the clinical assessment of cerebral hemorrhage.MethodsIn our study, indications for patients receiving anticoagulation included AF, VTE, stroke/TIA, arteriosclerosis, peripheral vascular diseases (PVD), prosthetic mechanical valve replacement, etc. Data were obtained from the patient record hospitalization system. Logistic regression, area under the curve (AUC), and bar graphs were used to build predictive models in the development cohort. The models were internally validated, analytically characterized, and calibrated using AUC, calibration curves, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.ResultsThis single-center retrospective study included 617 patients treated with anticoagulants. Multifactorial analysis showed that male, leukoaraiosis, high risk of falls, APTT ≥ 45.4 s, and FIB ≥ 4.2 g/L were independent risk factors for cerebral hemorrhage, and β-blockers were protective factors. The model was constructed using these six factors with an AUC value of 0.883. In the validation cohort, the model had good discriminatory power (AUC = 0.801) and calibration power. Five-fold cross-validation showed Kappa of 0.483.ConclusionPredictive models based on a patient’s medical record hospitalization system can be used to identify patients at risk for cerebral hemorrhage. Identifying people at risk can provide proactive interventions for patients.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2025.1475956/fullintracranial hemorrhageanticoagulantpredictionscorerisk factors |
| spellingShingle | Fuxin Ma Zhiwei Zeng Jiana Chen Chengfu Guan Wenlin Xu Chunhua Wang Jinhua Zhang A new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugs Frontiers in Neurology intracranial hemorrhage anticoagulant prediction score risk factors |
| title | A new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugs |
| title_full | A new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugs |
| title_fullStr | A new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugs |
| title_full_unstemmed | A new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugs |
| title_short | A new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugs |
| title_sort | new score for predicting intracranial hemorrhage in patients using anticoagulant drugs |
| topic | intracranial hemorrhage anticoagulant prediction score risk factors |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2025.1475956/full |
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