Nowcasting of Russian manufacturing output using business survey data
This article is devoted to checking the possibility of using business survey data surveys to nowcasting of Russian manufacturing output: analysis of business cycles and short-term forecasting (1 month ahead). The study uses data from business surveys of the Federal State Statistics Service, the R...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Omsk State Technical University, Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Омский научный вестник: Серия "Общество. История. Современность" |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.omgtu.ru/general_information/media_omgtu/journal_of_omsk_research_journal/files/arhiv/2023/%D0%A2.8,%20%E2%84%964%20(%D0%9E%D0%98%D0%A1)/152-160%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87%20%D0%A0.%20%D0%95..pdf |
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| Summary: | This article is devoted to checking the possibility of using business survey data
surveys to nowcasting of Russian manufacturing output: analysis of business cycles
and short-term forecasting (1 month ahead). The study uses data from business
surveys of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Russian Union of Industrialists and
Entrepreneurs and S&P Global. The results of these surveys are published promptly
(20 days or more ahead of the release of official statistics) and are freely available.
The study shows that the indicators of the Federal State Statistics Service (economic
situation, number of employees, business confidence index, output, demand,
export) allow to increase the accuracy of forecasts by 21–39 % and have a high
correlation with business cycles of the manufacturing industry. In general, the use
of most business survey indicators improves short-term forecasts of manufacturing
output, more than half of the indicators have a correlation coefficient greater than
0,8 with the business cycles of this sector of the economy. |
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| ISSN: | 2542-0488 2541-7983 |