Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 models
Understanding drought responses to global warming can enhance our ability to manage drought risks. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was computed using 18 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Three drought characteristics...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2025.2455491 |
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| author | Xiufang Zhu Dongyan Lu Tingting Liu Shizhe Zhang |
| author_facet | Xiufang Zhu Dongyan Lu Tingting Liu Shizhe Zhang |
| author_sort | Xiufang Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding drought responses to global warming can enhance our ability to manage drought risks. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was computed using 18 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Three drought characteristics (drought frequency, duration, and intensity) were extracted, and the drought hazard index (DHI) was constructed to assess drought hazards in China for the 1995–2014 reference period and future 2 °C, 3 °C and 4 °C temperature rise scenarios. Results revealed that drought frequency in the eastern monsoon region of China was higher in the south, lower in the north, and generally increased with warming. Drought duration and intensity were higher in northwest China and lower in southeast China, markedly increasing with warming. The DHI was relatively high in northwest inland and southeast coastal China. National average DHI values for the reference period and the three temperature rise scenarios were 0.26, 0.31, 0.33, and 0.36, respectively. Under future temperature rise scenarios, the DHI in all regions of China, excluding the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, would generally increase compared to the reference period. National average increase values of DHI under the 3 °C and 4 °C scenarios reach 1.5 and 2 times that under the 2 °C scenario. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b60506d9cabb43039f149ee30e8c3f7e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| spelling | doaj-art-b60506d9cabb43039f149ee30e8c3f7e2025-01-31T14:34:08ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132025-12-0116110.1080/19475705.2025.2455491Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 modelsXiufang Zhu0Dongyan Lu1Tingting Liu2Shizhe Zhang3Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaUnderstanding drought responses to global warming can enhance our ability to manage drought risks. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was computed using 18 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Three drought characteristics (drought frequency, duration, and intensity) were extracted, and the drought hazard index (DHI) was constructed to assess drought hazards in China for the 1995–2014 reference period and future 2 °C, 3 °C and 4 °C temperature rise scenarios. Results revealed that drought frequency in the eastern monsoon region of China was higher in the south, lower in the north, and generally increased with warming. Drought duration and intensity were higher in northwest China and lower in southeast China, markedly increasing with warming. The DHI was relatively high in northwest inland and southeast coastal China. National average DHI values for the reference period and the three temperature rise scenarios were 0.26, 0.31, 0.33, and 0.36, respectively. Under future temperature rise scenarios, the DHI in all regions of China, excluding the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, would generally increase compared to the reference period. National average increase values of DHI under the 3 °C and 4 °C scenarios reach 1.5 and 2 times that under the 2 °C scenario.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2025.2455491Droughthazardtemperature rise scenarioCMIP6China |
| spellingShingle | Xiufang Zhu Dongyan Lu Tingting Liu Shizhe Zhang Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 models Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk Drought hazard temperature rise scenario CMIP6 China |
| title | Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 models |
| title_full | Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 models |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 models |
| title_short | Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 models |
| title_sort | assessment of drought hazard change in china under 2°c 3°c and 4°c temperature rise scenarios based on cmip6 models |
| topic | Drought hazard temperature rise scenario CMIP6 China |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2025.2455491 |
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