A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed
The need for improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and realistic assessments of the regional impacts of natural climate variability and climate change has generated increased interest in regional (i.e., systems-scale) climate simulation. The Salton Sea Stochastic Simulation Model (S4M) was d...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/135012 |
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| author | Michael E. Kjelland Todd M. Swannack William E. Grant |
| author_facet | Michael E. Kjelland Todd M. Swannack William E. Grant |
| author_sort | Michael E. Kjelland |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The need for improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and realistic assessments of the regional impacts of natural climate variability and climate change has generated increased interest in regional (i.e., systems-scale) climate simulation. The Salton Sea Stochastic Simulation Model (S4M) was developed to assist planners and residents of the Salton Sea (SS) transboundary watershed (USA and Mexico) in making sound policy decisions regarding complex water-related issues. In order to develop the S4M with a higher degree of climate forecasting resolution, an in-depth analysis was conducted regarding precipitation and evapotranspiration for the semiarid region of the watershed. Weather station data were compiled for both precipitation and evapotranspiration from 1980 to 2004. Several logistic regression models were developed for determining the relationships among precipitation events, that is, duration and volume, and evapotranspiration levels. These data were then used to develop a stochastic weather generator for S4M. Analyses revealed that the cumulative effects and changes of ±10 percent in SS inflows can have significant effects on sea elevation and salinity. The aforementioned technique maintains the relationships between the historic frequency distributions of both precipitation and evapotranspiration, and not as separate unconnected and constrained variables. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b5e422c6ec4b4f68bc4517df431eab7e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-b5e422c6ec4b4f68bc4517df431eab7e2025-02-03T01:26:33ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172014-01-01201410.1155/2014/135012135012A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea WatershedMichael E. Kjelland0Todd M. Swannack1William E. Grant2U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS 39180-6199, USAU.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS 39180-6199, USADepartment of Wildlife & Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USAThe need for improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and realistic assessments of the regional impacts of natural climate variability and climate change has generated increased interest in regional (i.e., systems-scale) climate simulation. The Salton Sea Stochastic Simulation Model (S4M) was developed to assist planners and residents of the Salton Sea (SS) transboundary watershed (USA and Mexico) in making sound policy decisions regarding complex water-related issues. In order to develop the S4M with a higher degree of climate forecasting resolution, an in-depth analysis was conducted regarding precipitation and evapotranspiration for the semiarid region of the watershed. Weather station data were compiled for both precipitation and evapotranspiration from 1980 to 2004. Several logistic regression models were developed for determining the relationships among precipitation events, that is, duration and volume, and evapotranspiration levels. These data were then used to develop a stochastic weather generator for S4M. Analyses revealed that the cumulative effects and changes of ±10 percent in SS inflows can have significant effects on sea elevation and salinity. The aforementioned technique maintains the relationships between the historic frequency distributions of both precipitation and evapotranspiration, and not as separate unconnected and constrained variables.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/135012 |
| spellingShingle | Michael E. Kjelland Todd M. Swannack William E. Grant A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed Advances in Meteorology |
| title | A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed |
| title_full | A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed |
| title_fullStr | A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed |
| title_full_unstemmed | A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed |
| title_short | A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed |
| title_sort | system dynamics approach to modeling future climate scenarios quantifying and projecting patterns of evapotranspiration and precipitation in the salton sea watershed |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/135012 |
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