ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
<p>The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercompa...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/541/2025/tc-19-541-2025.pdf |
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| author | J. F. O'Neill T. L. Edwards D. F. Martin C. Shafer S. L. Cornford H. L. Seroussi S. Nowicki M. Adhikari L. J. Gregoire |
| author_facet | J. F. O'Neill T. L. Edwards D. F. Martin C. Shafer S. L. Cornford H. L. Seroussi S. Nowicki M. Adhikari L. J. Gregoire |
| author_sort | J. F. O'Neill |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of <span class="cit" id="xref_text.1"><a href="#bib1.bibx19">Edwards et al.</a> (<a href="#bib1.bibx19">2021</a>)</span>, which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b5151553718248e6b5a2be3151775edf |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Cryosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-b5151553718248e6b5a2be3151775edf2025-02-04T12:36:25ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242025-02-011954156310.5194/tc-19-541-2025ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet modelJ. F. O'Neill0T. L. Edwards1D. F. Martin2C. Shafer3S. L. Cornford4H. L. Seroussi5S. Nowicki6M. Adhikari7L. J. Gregoire8Centre for Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, UKDepartment of Geography, King's College London, London, UKComputational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USADepartment of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USACentre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKThayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USADepartment of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USADepartment of Geography, King's College London, London, UKSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK<p>The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of <span class="cit" id="xref_text.1"><a href="#bib1.bibx19">Edwards et al.</a> (<a href="#bib1.bibx19">2021</a>)</span>, which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.</p>https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/541/2025/tc-19-541-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. F. O'Neill T. L. Edwards D. F. Martin C. Shafer S. L. Cornford H. L. Seroussi S. Nowicki M. Adhikari L. J. Gregoire ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model The Cryosphere |
| title | ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model |
| title_full | ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model |
| title_fullStr | ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model |
| title_full_unstemmed | ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model |
| title_short | ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model |
| title_sort | ismip6 based antarctic projections to 2100 simulations with the bisicles ice sheet model |
| url | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/541/2025/tc-19-541-2025.pdf |
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