Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021
Abstract Background To provide estimates and trends for burdens of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide projections of EOCRC burden through 2030. Methods A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases 2021. The...
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BMC
2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-03867-9 |
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| author | Yang Meng Zongbiao Tan Junhai Zhen Di Xiao Liwei Cai Weiguo Dong Changzheng Chen |
| author_facet | Yang Meng Zongbiao Tan Junhai Zhen Di Xiao Liwei Cai Weiguo Dong Changzheng Chen |
| author_sort | Yang Meng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background To provide estimates and trends for burdens of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide projections of EOCRC burden through 2030. Methods A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases 2021. The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends on EOCRC burden by calculating the corresponding average annual percent changes (AAPCs). A decomposition analysis was used to understand the drivers of the changes in EOCRC burden. The relationship between socio-demographic index (SDI) and disease burden was assessed by the concentration index of inequality. In addition, we constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the burden of EOCRC worldwide from 2022 to 2030. Results Globally, the burden of EOCRC increased significantly between 1990 and 2021, with the incidence rising from 5.43/100000 to 6.13/100000 (AAPC = 0.39), and the prevalence increasing from 29.65/100000 to 38.86/100000 (AAPC = 0.87). Over the same period, the death rate decreased from 2.98/100000 to 2.30/100000 (AAPC = − 0.84), whereas the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) decreased from 148.46/100000 to 115.42/100000 (AAPC = − 0.82). In 2021, East Asia and China had the highest burden of EOCRC regionally and nationally. Decomposition analysis indicated the increase in EOCRC burden was mainly driven by population growth. The concentration index revealed that high-SDI countries had a greater burden of EOCRC than low-SDI countries. The global incidence and prevalence of EOCRC will rise continuously from 2022 to 2030. Conclusions Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence and prevalence of EOCRC have escalated, whereas the death rate and DALY rate have declined. The burden varied with sex, SDI, and geographical locations. Given the rising trend of EOCRC burden, coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the burden posed by this malignancy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b44605b5a13a4057bc6a405e85654e33 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1741-7015 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-b44605b5a13a4057bc6a405e85654e332025-01-26T12:37:12ZengBMCBMC Medicine1741-70152025-01-0123111410.1186/s12916-025-03867-9Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021Yang Meng0Zongbiao Tan1Junhai Zhen2Di Xiao3Liwei Cai4Weiguo Dong5Changzheng Chen6Department of Ophthalmology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of General Practice, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Ophthalmology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Ophthalmology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Ophthalmology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan UniversityAbstract Background To provide estimates and trends for burdens of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide projections of EOCRC burden through 2030. Methods A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases 2021. The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends on EOCRC burden by calculating the corresponding average annual percent changes (AAPCs). A decomposition analysis was used to understand the drivers of the changes in EOCRC burden. The relationship between socio-demographic index (SDI) and disease burden was assessed by the concentration index of inequality. In addition, we constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the burden of EOCRC worldwide from 2022 to 2030. Results Globally, the burden of EOCRC increased significantly between 1990 and 2021, with the incidence rising from 5.43/100000 to 6.13/100000 (AAPC = 0.39), and the prevalence increasing from 29.65/100000 to 38.86/100000 (AAPC = 0.87). Over the same period, the death rate decreased from 2.98/100000 to 2.30/100000 (AAPC = − 0.84), whereas the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) decreased from 148.46/100000 to 115.42/100000 (AAPC = − 0.82). In 2021, East Asia and China had the highest burden of EOCRC regionally and nationally. Decomposition analysis indicated the increase in EOCRC burden was mainly driven by population growth. The concentration index revealed that high-SDI countries had a greater burden of EOCRC than low-SDI countries. The global incidence and prevalence of EOCRC will rise continuously from 2022 to 2030. Conclusions Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence and prevalence of EOCRC have escalated, whereas the death rate and DALY rate have declined. The burden varied with sex, SDI, and geographical locations. Given the rising trend of EOCRC burden, coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the burden posed by this malignancy.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-03867-9Early-onset colorectal cancerDisease burdenGlobal burden of disease study 2021 |
| spellingShingle | Yang Meng Zongbiao Tan Junhai Zhen Di Xiao Liwei Cai Weiguo Dong Changzheng Chen Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 BMC Medicine Early-onset colorectal cancer Disease burden Global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title | Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_full | Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_short | Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_sort | global regional and national burden of early onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021 a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | Early-onset colorectal cancer Disease burden Global burden of disease study 2021 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-03867-9 |
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