Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics.
This study presents a novel non-autonomous mathematical model to explore the intricate relationship between temperature and desert locust population dynamics, considering the influence of both solitarious and gregarious phases across all life stages. The model incorporates temperature-dependent para...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2025-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317040 |
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| author | Dejen Ketema Mamo Mathew N Kinyanjui Nourridine Siewe |
| author_facet | Dejen Ketema Mamo Mathew N Kinyanjui Nourridine Siewe |
| author_sort | Dejen Ketema Mamo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study presents a novel non-autonomous mathematical model to explore the intricate relationship between temperature and desert locust population dynamics, considering the influence of both solitarious and gregarious phases across all life stages. The model incorporates temperature-dependent parameters for key biological processes, including egg development, hopper growth, adult maturation, and reproduction. Theoretical analysis reveals the model's capacity for complex dynamical behaviors, such as multiple stable states and backward bifurcations, suggesting the potential for sudden and unpredictable population shifts. Sensitivity analysis identifies temperature-related parameters as critical drivers of population fluctuations, highlighting the importance of accurate temperature predictions for effective management. Numerical simulations demonstrate the significant impact of temperature on population growth, with optimal conditions promoting rapid development and increased survival, while extreme temperatures can hinder population growth and trigger phase transitions. By providing a deeper understanding of temperature-driven population shifts, this model enhances the ability to predict locust outbreaks, optimize control strategies, and reduce the socio-economic and ecological impacts of locust invasions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b3be433dffe8487f811e921b172a59b3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-b3be433dffe8487f811e921b172a59b32025-02-05T05:32:11ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032025-01-01201e031704010.1371/journal.pone.0317040Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics.Dejen Ketema MamoMathew N KinyanjuiNourridine SieweThis study presents a novel non-autonomous mathematical model to explore the intricate relationship between temperature and desert locust population dynamics, considering the influence of both solitarious and gregarious phases across all life stages. The model incorporates temperature-dependent parameters for key biological processes, including egg development, hopper growth, adult maturation, and reproduction. Theoretical analysis reveals the model's capacity for complex dynamical behaviors, such as multiple stable states and backward bifurcations, suggesting the potential for sudden and unpredictable population shifts. Sensitivity analysis identifies temperature-related parameters as critical drivers of population fluctuations, highlighting the importance of accurate temperature predictions for effective management. Numerical simulations demonstrate the significant impact of temperature on population growth, with optimal conditions promoting rapid development and increased survival, while extreme temperatures can hinder population growth and trigger phase transitions. By providing a deeper understanding of temperature-driven population shifts, this model enhances the ability to predict locust outbreaks, optimize control strategies, and reduce the socio-economic and ecological impacts of locust invasions.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317040 |
| spellingShingle | Dejen Ketema Mamo Mathew N Kinyanjui Nourridine Siewe Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics. PLoS ONE |
| title | Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics. |
| title_full | Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics. |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics. |
| title_short | Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics. |
| title_sort | mathematical assessment of the role of temperature on desert locust population dynamics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317040 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dejenketemamamo mathematicalassessmentoftheroleoftemperatureondesertlocustpopulationdynamics AT mathewnkinyanjui mathematicalassessmentoftheroleoftemperatureondesertlocustpopulationdynamics AT nourridinesiewe mathematicalassessmentoftheroleoftemperatureondesertlocustpopulationdynamics |