Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach
Scenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development. In this study, land use structure changes during 1988–2010 in North Chi...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2013-01-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/592121 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832549464060985344 |
|---|---|
| author | Jinyan Zhan Feng Wu Chenchen Shi Fan Zhang Zhihui Li |
| author_facet | Jinyan Zhan Feng Wu Chenchen Shi Fan Zhang Zhihui Li |
| author_sort | Jinyan Zhan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Scenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development. In this study, land use structure changes during 1988–2010 in North China Plain were discerned and the effects of various natural and socioeconomic driving factors on land use structure changes were quantitatively analyzed based on an econometric model. The key drivers of land use structure changes in the model are county-level net returns of land resource. In this research, we modified the net returns of each land use type for three scenarios, including business as usual (BAU) scenario, rapid economic growth (REG) scenario, and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario. The simulation results showed that, under different scenarios, future land use structures were different due to the competition among various land use types. The land use structure changes in North China Plain in the 40-year future will experience a transfer from cultivated land to built-up area, an increase of forestry, and decrease of grassland. The research will provide some significant references for land use management and planning in the study area. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b2ff40f35f7d4563a1ee4617530a05fb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-b2ff40f35f7d4563a1ee4617530a05fb2025-02-03T06:11:21ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172013-01-01201310.1155/2013/592121592121Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric ApproachJinyan Zhan0Feng Wu1Chenchen Shi2Fan Zhang3Zhihui Li4State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaSchool of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, ChinaInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaScenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development. In this study, land use structure changes during 1988–2010 in North China Plain were discerned and the effects of various natural and socioeconomic driving factors on land use structure changes were quantitatively analyzed based on an econometric model. The key drivers of land use structure changes in the model are county-level net returns of land resource. In this research, we modified the net returns of each land use type for three scenarios, including business as usual (BAU) scenario, rapid economic growth (REG) scenario, and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario. The simulation results showed that, under different scenarios, future land use structures were different due to the competition among various land use types. The land use structure changes in North China Plain in the 40-year future will experience a transfer from cultivated land to built-up area, an increase of forestry, and decrease of grassland. The research will provide some significant references for land use management and planning in the study area.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/592121 |
| spellingShingle | Jinyan Zhan Feng Wu Chenchen Shi Fan Zhang Zhihui Li Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach |
| title_full | Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach |
| title_fullStr | Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach |
| title_short | Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach |
| title_sort | scenario analyses of land use conversion in the north china plain an econometric approach |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/592121 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jinyanzhan scenarioanalysesoflanduseconversioninthenorthchinaplainaneconometricapproach AT fengwu scenarioanalysesoflanduseconversioninthenorthchinaplainaneconometricapproach AT chenchenshi scenarioanalysesoflanduseconversioninthenorthchinaplainaneconometricapproach AT fanzhang scenarioanalysesoflanduseconversioninthenorthchinaplainaneconometricapproach AT zhihuili scenarioanalysesoflanduseconversioninthenorthchinaplainaneconometricapproach |