The physics-based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou fault in southern China
Abstract Dynamic rupture directivity significantly impacts earthquake hazard and loss assessments; yet, it is often overlooked, leading to uncertainties. We developed high-resolution, broadband, deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou Fault (ZF) in the Guangdong-...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00054-3 |
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| author | Yilong Li Houyun Yu Ming Wang Xiuwei Ye Kai Liu Zhenguo Zhang Wei Zhang Xiaofei Chen |
| author_facet | Yilong Li Houyun Yu Ming Wang Xiuwei Ye Kai Liu Zhenguo Zhang Wei Zhang Xiaofei Chen |
| author_sort | Yilong Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Dynamic rupture directivity significantly impacts earthquake hazard and loss assessments; yet, it is often overlooked, leading to uncertainties. We developed high-resolution, broadband, deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou Fault (ZF) in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of southern China. The calculations cover the entire physical process from fault dynamic rupture through strong ground motion propagation to quantitative loss estimations. We fully incorporate the real 3D physical fields, including fault structure, regional stress, friction conditions, inhomogeneous velocity, and topography. Results revealed higher earthquake hazards and losses triggered by the northwestern ZF segment, affecting Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Macao, and Guangzhou. The rupture directivity effect, driven by seismic wave interferences in forward propagation, leads to stark differences in hazards and losses across urban agglomerations, even under similar fault conditions. These findings help enhance the precision of earthquake risk assessments and provide practical approaches for disaster prevention. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b146533f3bc74cfba8c74d6d1e7ffdb1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2948-2100 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Natural Hazards |
| spelling | doaj-art-b146533f3bc74cfba8c74d6d1e7ffdb12025-01-19T12:10:54ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002025-01-012111310.1038/s44304-024-00054-3The physics-based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou fault in southern ChinaYilong Li0Houyun Yu1Ming Wang2Xiuwei Ye3Kai Liu4Zhenguo Zhang5Wei Zhang6Xiaofei Chen7Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, Beijing Normal UniversityDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and TechnologyJoint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, Beijing Normal UniversityChina Earthquake Administration Key Laboratory of Earthquake Monitoring and Disaster Mitigation Technology, Guangdong Earthquake AgencyJoint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, Beijing Normal UniversityDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and TechnologyAbstract Dynamic rupture directivity significantly impacts earthquake hazard and loss assessments; yet, it is often overlooked, leading to uncertainties. We developed high-resolution, broadband, deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou Fault (ZF) in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of southern China. The calculations cover the entire physical process from fault dynamic rupture through strong ground motion propagation to quantitative loss estimations. We fully incorporate the real 3D physical fields, including fault structure, regional stress, friction conditions, inhomogeneous velocity, and topography. Results revealed higher earthquake hazards and losses triggered by the northwestern ZF segment, affecting Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Macao, and Guangzhou. The rupture directivity effect, driven by seismic wave interferences in forward propagation, leads to stark differences in hazards and losses across urban agglomerations, even under similar fault conditions. These findings help enhance the precision of earthquake risk assessments and provide practical approaches for disaster prevention.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00054-3 |
| spellingShingle | Yilong Li Houyun Yu Ming Wang Xiuwei Ye Kai Liu Zhenguo Zhang Wei Zhang Xiaofei Chen The physics-based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou fault in southern China npj Natural Hazards |
| title | The physics-based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou fault in southern China |
| title_full | The physics-based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou fault in southern China |
| title_fullStr | The physics-based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou fault in southern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | The physics-based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou fault in southern China |
| title_short | The physics-based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou fault in southern China |
| title_sort | physics based deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the zhujiangkou fault in southern china |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00054-3 |
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