Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting
Abstract On 7–8 September 2023, Hong Kong was hit by a historical and record‐breaking rainstorm associated with the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Haikui (2311). The hourly rainfall recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters once reached 158.1 mm, the highest since record began in 1884. The 24‐...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1284 |
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| author | Hiu Ching Tam Yu‐Heng He Pak Wai Chan Shiwei Yu Huisi Mo Hui Su Ling‐Feng Hsiao Yangzhao Gong |
| author_facet | Hiu Ching Tam Yu‐Heng He Pak Wai Chan Shiwei Yu Huisi Mo Hui Su Ling‐Feng Hsiao Yangzhao Gong |
| author_sort | Hiu Ching Tam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract On 7–8 September 2023, Hong Kong was hit by a historical and record‐breaking rainstorm associated with the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Haikui (2311). The hourly rainfall recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters once reached 158.1 mm, the highest since record began in 1884. The 24‐h rainfall even exceeded 600 mm in some parts of the territory. The historical rainstorm resulted in heavy flooding and landslides, bringing significant societal impact to Hong Kong. This paper aims to review this unprecedented heavy rain event from the aspects of diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting. Early indicators of such events over Hong Kong with substantial lead time are limited from the dynamics and thermodynamics consideration, the numerical weather prediction models, given the present technology. The only indication may come from the climatologically extreme total precipitable water. While recent research of developing a regional risk‐based alerting system on the higher impact event of flooding associated with heavy rain might have potential to enhance the weather service, and emerging AI model showed some promising post‐simulations, predicting historical and record‐breaking rainstorms remains a challenge for operational weather forecasting and warning services. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ac3b887875e54934a86f62c6991f549d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-ac3b887875e54934a86f62c6991f549d2025-01-29T09:47:21ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2025-01-01261n/an/a10.1002/asl.1284Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcastingHiu Ching Tam0Yu‐Heng He1Pak Wai Chan2Shiwei Yu3Huisi Mo4Hui Su5Ling‐Feng Hsiao6Yangzhao Gong7Hong Kong Observatory Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong Observatory Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong Observatory Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong ChinaCentral Weather Administration Taipei TaiwanStellerus Technology Limited Hong Kong ChinaAbstract On 7–8 September 2023, Hong Kong was hit by a historical and record‐breaking rainstorm associated with the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Haikui (2311). The hourly rainfall recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters once reached 158.1 mm, the highest since record began in 1884. The 24‐h rainfall even exceeded 600 mm in some parts of the territory. The historical rainstorm resulted in heavy flooding and landslides, bringing significant societal impact to Hong Kong. This paper aims to review this unprecedented heavy rain event from the aspects of diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting. Early indicators of such events over Hong Kong with substantial lead time are limited from the dynamics and thermodynamics consideration, the numerical weather prediction models, given the present technology. The only indication may come from the climatologically extreme total precipitable water. While recent research of developing a regional risk‐based alerting system on the higher impact event of flooding associated with heavy rain might have potential to enhance the weather service, and emerging AI model showed some promising post‐simulations, predicting historical and record‐breaking rainstorms remains a challenge for operational weather forecasting and warning services.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1284nowcastingnumerical weather predictionrainstormtropical cyclone |
| spellingShingle | Hiu Ching Tam Yu‐Heng He Pak Wai Chan Shiwei Yu Huisi Mo Hui Su Ling‐Feng Hsiao Yangzhao Gong Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting Atmospheric Science Letters nowcasting numerical weather prediction rainstorm tropical cyclone |
| title | Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting |
| title_full | Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting |
| title_fullStr | Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting |
| title_short | Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting |
| title_sort | historical rainstorm in hong kong on 7 8 september 2023 diagnosis forecasting and nowcasting |
| topic | nowcasting numerical weather prediction rainstorm tropical cyclone |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1284 |
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