Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses
Decadal prediction experiments are conducted by using the coupled global climate model FGOALS-s2, following the CMIP 5 protocol. The paper documents the initialization procedures for the decadal prediction experiments and summarizes the predictive skills of the experiments, which are assessed throug...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/904826 |
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| _version_ | 1832551418973650944 |
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| author | Bo Wu Xiaolong Chen Fengfei Song Yong Sun Tianjun Zhou |
| author_facet | Bo Wu Xiaolong Chen Fengfei Song Yong Sun Tianjun Zhou |
| author_sort | Bo Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Decadal prediction experiments are conducted by using the coupled global climate model FGOALS-s2, following the CMIP 5 protocol. The paper documents the initialization procedures for the decadal prediction experiments and summarizes the predictive skills of the experiments, which are assessed through indicators adopted by the IPCC AR5. The observational anomalies of surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are assimilated through a modified incremental analysis update (IAU) scheme. Three sets of 10-year-long hindcast and forecast runs were started every five years in the period of 1960–2005, with the initial conditions taken from the assimilation runs. The decadal prediction experiment by FGOALS-s2 shows significant high predictive skills in the Indian Ocean, tropical western Pacific, and Atlantic, similar to the results of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. The predictive skills in the Indian Ocean and tropical western Pacific are primarily attributed to the model response to the external radiative forcing associated with the change of atmospheric compositions. In contrast, the high skills in the Atlantic are attributed, at least partly, to the improvements in the prediction of the Atlantic multidecadal variability coming from the initialization. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ab75b52a0649414099487ae85f7bc7c0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-ab75b52a0649414099487ae85f7bc7c02025-02-03T06:01:33ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172015-01-01201510.1155/2015/904826904826Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and WeaknessesBo Wu0Xiaolong Chen1Fengfei Song2Yong Sun3Tianjun Zhou4LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaDecadal prediction experiments are conducted by using the coupled global climate model FGOALS-s2, following the CMIP 5 protocol. The paper documents the initialization procedures for the decadal prediction experiments and summarizes the predictive skills of the experiments, which are assessed through indicators adopted by the IPCC AR5. The observational anomalies of surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are assimilated through a modified incremental analysis update (IAU) scheme. Three sets of 10-year-long hindcast and forecast runs were started every five years in the period of 1960–2005, with the initial conditions taken from the assimilation runs. The decadal prediction experiment by FGOALS-s2 shows significant high predictive skills in the Indian Ocean, tropical western Pacific, and Atlantic, similar to the results of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. The predictive skills in the Indian Ocean and tropical western Pacific are primarily attributed to the model response to the external radiative forcing associated with the change of atmospheric compositions. In contrast, the high skills in the Atlantic are attributed, at least partly, to the improvements in the prediction of the Atlantic multidecadal variability coming from the initialization.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/904826 |
| spellingShingle | Bo Wu Xiaolong Chen Fengfei Song Yong Sun Tianjun Zhou Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses |
| title_full | Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses |
| title_fullStr | Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses |
| title_full_unstemmed | Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses |
| title_short | Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses |
| title_sort | initialized decadal predictions by lasg iap climate system model fgoals s2 evaluations of strengths and weaknesses |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/904826 |
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