Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict
The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict casted an impact on the global food market, which was believed to be attributed to that Ukraine has suffered significant production losses due to cropland abandonment. Nevertheless, recent outbreaks of farmer protests against Ukraine’s grain exports demonstrat...
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MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| author | Kaixuan Dai Changxiu Cheng Siyi Kan Yaoming Li Kunran Liu Xudong Wu |
| author_facet | Kaixuan Dai Changxiu Cheng Siyi Kan Yaoming Li Kunran Liu Xudong Wu |
| author_sort | Kaixuan Dai |
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| description | The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict casted an impact on the global food market, which was believed to be attributed to that Ukraine has suffered significant production losses due to cropland abandonment. Nevertheless, recent outbreaks of farmer protests against Ukraine’s grain exports demonstrated that the production losses might not be as severe as previous estimates. By utilizing the adaptive threshold segmentation method to extract abandoned cropland from the Sentinel-2 high-resolution imagery and calibrating the spatial production allocation model’s gridded crop production data from Ukraine’s statistical data, this study explicitly evaluated Ukraine’s crop-specific production losses and the spatial heterogeneity. The results demonstrated that the estimated area of abandoned cropland in Ukraine ranges from 2.34 to 2.40 million hectares, constituting 7.14% to 7.30% of the total cropland. In Ukrainian-controlled zones, this area spans 1.44 to 1.48 million hectares, whereas in Russian-occupied areas, it varies from 0.90 to 0.92 million hectares. Additionally, the total production losses for wheat, maize, barley, and sunflower amount to 1.92, 1.67, 0.70, and 0.99 million tons, respectively, with corresponding loss ratios of 9.10%, 7.48%, 9.54%, and 8.67%. Furthermore, production losses of wheat, barley, and sunflower emerged in both the eastern and southern states adjacent to the conflict frontlines, while maize losses were concentrated in the western states. The findings imply that Ukraine ought to streamline the food transportation channels and maintain stable agricultural activities in regions with high crop production. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-ab5da8b3a0304cbeb49c8c9b4f1abfaa2025-08-20T01:54:04ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922024-11-011622420710.3390/rs16224207Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed ConflictKaixuan Dai0Changxiu Cheng1Siyi Kan2Yaoming Li3Kunran Liu4Xudong Wu5State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaThe Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UKXinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaSchool of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaThe outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict casted an impact on the global food market, which was believed to be attributed to that Ukraine has suffered significant production losses due to cropland abandonment. Nevertheless, recent outbreaks of farmer protests against Ukraine’s grain exports demonstrated that the production losses might not be as severe as previous estimates. By utilizing the adaptive threshold segmentation method to extract abandoned cropland from the Sentinel-2 high-resolution imagery and calibrating the spatial production allocation model’s gridded crop production data from Ukraine’s statistical data, this study explicitly evaluated Ukraine’s crop-specific production losses and the spatial heterogeneity. The results demonstrated that the estimated area of abandoned cropland in Ukraine ranges from 2.34 to 2.40 million hectares, constituting 7.14% to 7.30% of the total cropland. In Ukrainian-controlled zones, this area spans 1.44 to 1.48 million hectares, whereas in Russian-occupied areas, it varies from 0.90 to 0.92 million hectares. Additionally, the total production losses for wheat, maize, barley, and sunflower amount to 1.92, 1.67, 0.70, and 0.99 million tons, respectively, with corresponding loss ratios of 9.10%, 7.48%, 9.54%, and 8.67%. Furthermore, production losses of wheat, barley, and sunflower emerged in both the eastern and southern states adjacent to the conflict frontlines, while maize losses were concentrated in the western states. The findings imply that Ukraine ought to streamline the food transportation channels and maintain stable agricultural activities in regions with high crop production.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/22/4207Russia-Ukraine conflictcropland abandonmentcrop production losseshigh-resolution satellite imageryspatially explicit distribution |
| spellingShingle | Kaixuan Dai Changxiu Cheng Siyi Kan Yaoming Li Kunran Liu Xudong Wu Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict Remote Sensing Russia-Ukraine conflict cropland abandonment crop production losses high-resolution satellite imagery spatially explicit distribution |
| title | Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict |
| title_full | Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict |
| title_short | Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict |
| title_sort | impact of arable land abandonment on crop production losses in ukraine during the armed conflict |
| topic | Russia-Ukraine conflict cropland abandonment crop production losses high-resolution satellite imagery spatially explicit distribution |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/22/4207 |
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