Assessment of Future Possible Meteorological Drought for Isparta Province
There is an increase in drought events with climate change. Drought is a disaster that occurs over long periods of time for large areas compared to other natural disasters. For this reason, it is important to forecast the drought and take precautions. In this study, a longshort term memory network...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Artvin Coruh University
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/2610102 |
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| author | Tahsin Baykal Dilek Taylan Özlem Terzi |
| author_facet | Tahsin Baykal Dilek Taylan Özlem Terzi |
| author_sort | Tahsin Baykal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | There is an increase in drought events with climate change. Drought is a disaster that occurs over long periods of time for large areas
compared to other natural disasters. For this reason, it is important to forecast the drought and take precautions. In this study, a longshort term memory network (LSTM) method is proposed to predict drought in the long term with high accuracy. Firstly, monthly
precipitation values that are likely to occur in the next 10 years were estimated using the LSTM method with the monthly total
precipitation measured between 1929-2021 belonging to the Isparta meteorology station. When the descriptive statistical properties
of both precipitation series, which are predicted for both the current and the next 10 years, were examined, the similarities were seen.
Then, standardized precipitation index (SPI) values were calculated for the years 1929-2021 and the next 10 years. At the same time,
the trends of the SPI values obtained for the precipitation data between 1929 and 2021 and the SPI values calculated for the next 10
years were examined and the similarities of the trend analysis of all time intervals and the next 10 years’ data with the RCP4.5
precipitation projections were discussed.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ab310247b39c4d61b821d9cacc4aa591 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2528-9640 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Artvin Coruh University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-ab310247b39c4d61b821d9cacc4aa5912025-02-02T16:14:36ZengArtvin Coruh UniversityDoğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi2528-96402023-01-019190100https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1165500Assessment of Future Possible Meteorological Drought for Isparta ProvinceTahsin Baykal0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6218-0826 Dilek Taylan1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0734-1900Özlem Terzi2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6429-5176Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, İnşaat Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı, 32260, Isparta.Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü, 32260, Isparta. Isparta Uygulamalı Bilimler Üniversitesi, Teknoloji Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü, 32260, Isparta.There is an increase in drought events with climate change. Drought is a disaster that occurs over long periods of time for large areas compared to other natural disasters. For this reason, it is important to forecast the drought and take precautions. In this study, a longshort term memory network (LSTM) method is proposed to predict drought in the long term with high accuracy. Firstly, monthly precipitation values that are likely to occur in the next 10 years were estimated using the LSTM method with the monthly total precipitation measured between 1929-2021 belonging to the Isparta meteorology station. When the descriptive statistical properties of both precipitation series, which are predicted for both the current and the next 10 years, were examined, the similarities were seen. Then, standardized precipitation index (SPI) values were calculated for the years 1929-2021 and the next 10 years. At the same time, the trends of the SPI values obtained for the precipitation data between 1929 and 2021 and the SPI values calculated for the next 10 years were examined and the similarities of the trend analysis of all time intervals and the next 10 years’ data with the RCP4.5 precipitation projections were discussed. http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/2610102meteorological droughtspilstmisparta |
| spellingShingle | Tahsin Baykal Dilek Taylan Özlem Terzi Assessment of Future Possible Meteorological Drought for Isparta Province Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi meteorological drought spi lstm isparta |
| title | Assessment of Future Possible Meteorological Drought for Isparta Province |
| title_full | Assessment of Future Possible Meteorological Drought for Isparta Province |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Future Possible Meteorological Drought for Isparta Province |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Future Possible Meteorological Drought for Isparta Province |
| title_short | Assessment of Future Possible Meteorological Drought for Isparta Province |
| title_sort | assessment of future possible meteorological drought for isparta province |
| topic | meteorological drought spi lstm isparta |
| url | http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/2610102 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tahsinbaykal assessmentoffuturepossiblemeteorologicaldroughtforispartaprovince AT dilektaylan assessmentoffuturepossiblemeteorologicaldroughtforispartaprovince AT ozlemterzi assessmentoffuturepossiblemeteorologicaldroughtforispartaprovince |