Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index

Abstract Given the contemporary increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme anomalous hydromet hazards (droughts, floods, tropical storms, heatwaves), heightened attention of governments, scientists, media, and humanitarian organizations is being given to hydromet early warning sys...

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Main Authors: Michael H. Glantz, Ivan J. Ramírez
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SpringerOpen 2025-02-01
Series:International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-025-00625-6
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author Michael H. Glantz
Ivan J. Ramírez
author_facet Michael H. Glantz
Ivan J. Ramírez
author_sort Michael H. Glantz
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Given the contemporary increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme anomalous hydromet hazards (droughts, floods, tropical storms, heatwaves), heightened attention of governments, scientists, media, and humanitarian organizations is being given to hydromet early warning systems. The focus of this article is multidisciplinary and multifaceted: it involves connecting an earliest warning indicator associated with the Oceanic Niño Index, one that complements the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicator, with early warning early action and anticipatory action approaches for disaster risk reduction (DRR). This new indicator in theory at least could increase the lead time between the release of an official forecast of an El Niño and the first appearance of its adverse impacts, thereby serving as the earliest warning of an event. As such, this DRR research links new usable earliest warning information, providing additional time to initiate tactical actions to cope with El Niño-spawned hydromet hazards. Integrating an earliest indicator of the likely onset of an El Niño into early action frameworks would hasten humanitarian assistance by providing at-risk communities and humanitarian organizations with more time to consider a range of options for responding to El Niño’s impacts.
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spelling doaj-art-ab0df9726f894f4ea2ef4e525dd3fdb82025-08-20T03:53:08ZengSpringerOpenInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Science2095-00552192-63952025-02-0116217118110.1007/s13753-025-00625-6Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño IndexMichael H. Glantz0Ivan J. Ramírez1Consortium for Capacity Building/INSTAAR, University of ColoradoDepartment of Health and Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Auraria CampusAbstract Given the contemporary increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme anomalous hydromet hazards (droughts, floods, tropical storms, heatwaves), heightened attention of governments, scientists, media, and humanitarian organizations is being given to hydromet early warning systems. The focus of this article is multidisciplinary and multifaceted: it involves connecting an earliest warning indicator associated with the Oceanic Niño Index, one that complements the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicator, with early warning early action and anticipatory action approaches for disaster risk reduction (DRR). This new indicator in theory at least could increase the lead time between the release of an official forecast of an El Niño and the first appearance of its adverse impacts, thereby serving as the earliest warning of an event. As such, this DRR research links new usable earliest warning information, providing additional time to initiate tactical actions to cope with El Niño-spawned hydromet hazards. Integrating an earliest indicator of the likely onset of an El Niño into early action frameworks would hasten humanitarian assistance by providing at-risk communities and humanitarian organizations with more time to consider a range of options for responding to El Niño’s impacts.https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-025-00625-6Anticipatory actionEarliest warningEarly warning systemsEl NiñoENSODisaster risk reduction
spellingShingle Michael H. Glantz
Ivan J. Ramírez
Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
Anticipatory action
Earliest warning
Early warning systems
El Niño
ENSO
Disaster risk reduction
title Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index
title_full Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index
title_fullStr Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index
title_full_unstemmed Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index
title_short Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index
title_sort enhancing societal value of early warning early action and anticipatory action frameworks using noaa s oceanic nino index
topic Anticipatory action
Earliest warning
Early warning systems
El Niño
ENSO
Disaster risk reduction
url https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-025-00625-6
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