The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents
This study examines the impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock market index performance, with the moderating role of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) across five countries representing different continents: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, South Africa, and Australia...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Master Program in Economics, Graduate Program of Universitas Jambi
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah |
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| Online Access: | https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/37663 |
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| _version_ | 1832086971164393472 |
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| author | Ahmad Zidni Nuuron A'la Agus Sucipto Indah Yuliana |
| author_facet | Ahmad Zidni Nuuron A'la Agus Sucipto Indah Yuliana |
| author_sort | Ahmad Zidni Nuuron A'la |
| collection | DOAJ |
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This study examines the impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock market index performance, with the moderating role of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) across five countries representing different continents: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, South Africa, and Australia. These countries were selected for their distinct economic policies and significant contributions to the global economy. Using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) method and 2,400 monthly data observations spanning 2014 to 2023, sourced from official institutions such as central banks and financial agencies, this research provides key insights. The findings reveal that inflation positively influences index performance in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, while it negatively impacts performance in China. Interest rates predominantly have a negative effect on index performance, except in the United Kingdom and China, where the effect is statistically insignificant. The moderation effect of the CCI varies by country, highlighting the role of unique economic contexts in shaping the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and stock market indices. This study offers valuable implications for policymakers in managing inflation and bolstering consumer confidence and provides strategic insights for investors navigating global economic dynamics.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-aa5c1969315446819ac930baae0d74b7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2338-4603 2355-8520 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Master Program in Economics, Graduate Program of Universitas Jambi |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah |
| spelling | doaj-art-aa5c1969315446819ac930baae0d74b72025-02-06T08:36:17ZengMaster Program in Economics, Graduate Program of Universitas JambiJurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah2338-46032355-85202024-12-0112510.22437/ppd.v12i5.37663The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continentsAhmad Zidni Nuuron A'la0Agus Sucipto1Indah Yuliana2Department of Management, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang, IndonesiaDepartment of Management, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang, IndonesiaDepartment of Management, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang, Indonesia This study examines the impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock market index performance, with the moderating role of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) across five countries representing different continents: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, South Africa, and Australia. These countries were selected for their distinct economic policies and significant contributions to the global economy. Using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) method and 2,400 monthly data observations spanning 2014 to 2023, sourced from official institutions such as central banks and financial agencies, this research provides key insights. The findings reveal that inflation positively influences index performance in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, while it negatively impacts performance in China. Interest rates predominantly have a negative effect on index performance, except in the United Kingdom and China, where the effect is statistically insignificant. The moderation effect of the CCI varies by country, highlighting the role of unique economic contexts in shaping the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and stock market indices. This study offers valuable implications for policymakers in managing inflation and bolstering consumer confidence and provides strategic insights for investors navigating global economic dynamics. https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/37663Consumer confidence indexGlobal stock market performanceInflationInterest rates |
| spellingShingle | Ahmad Zidni Nuuron A'la Agus Sucipto Indah Yuliana The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah Consumer confidence index Global stock market performance Inflation Interest rates |
| title | The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents |
| title_full | The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents |
| title_fullStr | The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents |
| title_short | The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents |
| title_sort | impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets the moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents |
| topic | Consumer confidence index Global stock market performance Inflation Interest rates |
| url | https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/37663 |
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