Modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in Hamedan County
Understanding and predicting future climatic conditions and characteristics is crucial due to their implications for various aspects of life. This research aims to forecast trends in extreme temperatures in the Hamedan region by employing statistical downscaling of general circulation model data. Th...
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Kharazmi University
2025-06-01
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| Series: | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
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| Online Access: | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4212-en.pdf |
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| author | Zohreh Maryanji fatemeh sotoudeh meysam toulabi nejad Ziba Zarrin |
| author_facet | Zohreh Maryanji fatemeh sotoudeh meysam toulabi nejad Ziba Zarrin |
| author_sort | Zohreh Maryanji |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding and predicting future climatic conditions and characteristics is crucial due to their implications for various aspects of life. This research aims to forecast trends in extreme temperatures in the Hamedan region by employing statistical downscaling of general circulation model data. The LARS statistical downscaling model has been utilized to downscale data from the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and the coupled CMIP5 model under three emission scenarios (RCP2.5, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Correlation estimates between the simulated and observed data indicate values exceeding 0.95 for all months. Additionally, the p-values derived from statistical tests based on the model outputs demonstrate an acceptable level of performance in data generation and simulation. Consequently, data from 2011 to 2050 were extracted and analyzed for trends. To elucidate changes in trends, the data were examined across three distinct time intervals. The results indicate that in the optimistic scenario (RCP2.5), no significant trend is observed in the average and minimum temperatures. In contrast, significant trends in temperature data are evident under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that the increase in average minimum temperatures reflects severe climatic changes, particularly affecting precipitation patterns during the cold season. Furthermore, the analysis of the trend data reveals a significant increase in average maximum temperatures on both annual and monthly scales across all three examined scenarios, indicating an imminent environmental crisis. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a9475695230144a292f807ee6e31ae84 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2228-7736 2588-5138 |
| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Kharazmi University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| spelling | doaj-art-a9475695230144a292f807ee6e31ae842025-01-31T17:34:08ZfasKharazmi Universityتحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی2228-77362588-51382025-06-012577152173Modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in Hamedan CountyZohreh Maryanji0fatemeh sotoudeh1meysam toulabi nejad2Ziba Zarrin3 Associate Professor of climatology, Sayyed Jamaleddin Asadabadi University, Asadabad, Iran. Ph.D. in climatology, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran Ph.D. in climatology, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran Master of science in remote sensing engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. Understanding and predicting future climatic conditions and characteristics is crucial due to their implications for various aspects of life. This research aims to forecast trends in extreme temperatures in the Hamedan region by employing statistical downscaling of general circulation model data. The LARS statistical downscaling model has been utilized to downscale data from the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and the coupled CMIP5 model under three emission scenarios (RCP2.5, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Correlation estimates between the simulated and observed data indicate values exceeding 0.95 for all months. Additionally, the p-values derived from statistical tests based on the model outputs demonstrate an acceptable level of performance in data generation and simulation. Consequently, data from 2011 to 2050 were extracted and analyzed for trends. To elucidate changes in trends, the data were examined across three distinct time intervals. The results indicate that in the optimistic scenario (RCP2.5), no significant trend is observed in the average and minimum temperatures. In contrast, significant trends in temperature data are evident under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that the increase in average minimum temperatures reflects severe climatic changes, particularly affecting precipitation patterns during the cold season. Furthermore, the analysis of the trend data reveals a significant increase in average maximum temperatures on both annual and monthly scales across all three examined scenarios, indicating an imminent environmental crisis.http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4212-en.pdfdownscalinglars modeltrendsextremes temperatureshamedan |
| spellingShingle | Zohreh Maryanji fatemeh sotoudeh meysam toulabi nejad Ziba Zarrin Modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in Hamedan County تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی downscaling lars model trends extremes temperatures hamedan |
| title | Modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in Hamedan County |
| title_full | Modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in Hamedan County |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in Hamedan County |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in Hamedan County |
| title_short | Modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in Hamedan County |
| title_sort | modeling and predicting the trend of temperature changes in hamedan county |
| topic | downscaling lars model trends extremes temperatures hamedan |
| url | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4212-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zohrehmaryanji modelingandpredictingthetrendoftemperaturechangesinhamedancounty AT fatemehsotoudeh modelingandpredictingthetrendoftemperaturechangesinhamedancounty AT meysamtoulabinejad modelingandpredictingthetrendoftemperaturechangesinhamedancounty AT zibazarrin modelingandpredictingthetrendoftemperaturechangesinhamedancounty |