Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines
Summary: Successful recovery from extreme weather events is key to avoid long-term poverty implications. Yet, in disaster prone regions, there may not always be enough time to recover between events. There is a common narrative that the resulting incomplete recoveries aggravate adverse impacts, but...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | iScience |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224029602 |
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| author | Inga J. Sauer Brian Walsh Katja Frieler David N. Bresch Christian Otto |
| author_facet | Inga J. Sauer Brian Walsh Katja Frieler David N. Bresch Christian Otto |
| author_sort | Inga J. Sauer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Successful recovery from extreme weather events is key to avoid long-term poverty implications. Yet, in disaster prone regions, there may not always be enough time to recover between events. There is a common narrative that the resulting incomplete recoveries aggravate adverse impacts, but approaches allowing for a systematic quantitative assessment are missing. Here, we extend an agent-based model to study welfare effects in the Philippines depending on household exposure and income. We find that incomplete recoveries increase cumulative consumption and well-being losses across the study period 2000–2018 by 40%. While low-income households suffer the highest well-being losses, the effect of incomplete recoveries is most relevant for middle-income households. Consequently, losses can be critically underestimated when drawing conclusions about the impacts of recurrent events based on the impacts of individual events. Accounting for incomplete recoveries may help to better prepare for an intensification of extreme events under climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a92351d7bb6640478351cf671cc3dc50 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2589-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | iScience |
| spelling | doaj-art-a92351d7bb6640478351cf671cc3dc502025-01-26T05:04:34ZengElsevieriScience2589-00422025-02-01282111733Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the PhilippinesInga J. Sauer0Brian Walsh1Katja Frieler2David N. Bresch3Christian Otto4Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Transformation Pathways, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyWorld Bank, Climate Change Group, N.W. Washington, DC 20433, USAPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Transformation Pathways, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; MeteoSwiss, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, Zurich Airport, 8058 Zurich, SwitzerlandPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Transformation Pathways, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Corresponding authorSummary: Successful recovery from extreme weather events is key to avoid long-term poverty implications. Yet, in disaster prone regions, there may not always be enough time to recover between events. There is a common narrative that the resulting incomplete recoveries aggravate adverse impacts, but approaches allowing for a systematic quantitative assessment are missing. Here, we extend an agent-based model to study welfare effects in the Philippines depending on household exposure and income. We find that incomplete recoveries increase cumulative consumption and well-being losses across the study period 2000–2018 by 40%. While low-income households suffer the highest well-being losses, the effect of incomplete recoveries is most relevant for middle-income households. Consequently, losses can be critically underestimated when drawing conclusions about the impacts of recurrent events based on the impacts of individual events. Accounting for incomplete recoveries may help to better prepare for an intensification of extreme events under climate change.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224029602Earth sciencesEconomicsGlobal changeSocial sciences |
| spellingShingle | Inga J. Sauer Brian Walsh Katja Frieler David N. Bresch Christian Otto Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines iScience Earth sciences Economics Global change Social sciences |
| title | Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines |
| title_full | Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines |
| title_short | Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines |
| title_sort | understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the philippines |
| topic | Earth sciences Economics Global change Social sciences |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224029602 |
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