Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of Montana
Background: Small area substance use prevalence estimates at the county, city, or congressional district level are generally unavailable. In this study, we design a cannabis use survey for the state of Montana and use multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) to generate county-level popul...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Milano University Press
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://riviste.unimi.it/index.php/ebph/article/view/26905 |
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| _version_ | 1849702750956290048 |
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| author | Chase Walker Kristal Jones Brandn Green Frances Kim |
| author_facet | Chase Walker Kristal Jones Brandn Green Frances Kim |
| author_sort | Chase Walker |
| collection | DOAJ |
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Background: Small area substance use prevalence estimates at the county, city, or congressional district level are generally unavailable. In this study, we design a cannabis use survey for the state of Montana and use multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) to generate county-level population prevalence estimates for past year cannabis use.
Methods: We developed a survey that asks questions about cannabis perceptions and use patterns. We analyzed the survey data specifically for the outcome variable of past year cannabis use using MRP to generate population level prevalence estimates at the county level for the state of Montana.
Results: We received 1,958 responses from our survey. We generated county level estimates by age group for cannabis use over the past year and found that MRP estimates were consistent with prior estimations of cannabis use at the state level and provided the ability to use additional data and validated assumptions to refine and downscale estimations of cannabis use, particularly in counties with low response rates.
Conclusion: Multi-modal survey dissemination was cost effective, but future surveys should intend to recruit a larger and more representative sample to minimize selection bias and improve estimation for demographic sub-groups. Overall, MRP provided a promising methodology for generating small-area cannabis use prevalence estimates, adjusting as much as possible for non-representativeness and non-response.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a7f32b9b4a3c4d6c87d4575b99d6e3ca |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2282-0930 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Milano University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-a7f32b9b4a3c4d6c87d4575b99d6e3ca2025-08-20T03:17:32ZengMilano University PressEpidemiology, Biostatistics and Public Health2282-09302024-11-0119210.54103/2282-0930/26905Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of MontanaChase Walker0https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0298-8354Kristal Jones1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9737-9042Brandn Green2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1017-8887Frances Kimhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8027-8747JG Research and EvaluationJG Research and EvaluationJG Research and Evaluation Background: Small area substance use prevalence estimates at the county, city, or congressional district level are generally unavailable. In this study, we design a cannabis use survey for the state of Montana and use multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) to generate county-level population prevalence estimates for past year cannabis use. Methods: We developed a survey that asks questions about cannabis perceptions and use patterns. We analyzed the survey data specifically for the outcome variable of past year cannabis use using MRP to generate population level prevalence estimates at the county level for the state of Montana. Results: We received 1,958 responses from our survey. We generated county level estimates by age group for cannabis use over the past year and found that MRP estimates were consistent with prior estimations of cannabis use at the state level and provided the ability to use additional data and validated assumptions to refine and downscale estimations of cannabis use, particularly in counties with low response rates. Conclusion: Multi-modal survey dissemination was cost effective, but future surveys should intend to recruit a larger and more representative sample to minimize selection bias and improve estimation for demographic sub-groups. Overall, MRP provided a promising methodology for generating small-area cannabis use prevalence estimates, adjusting as much as possible for non-representativeness and non-response. https://riviste.unimi.it/index.php/ebph/article/view/26905MRPmultilevel regressionpoststratificationsurveillanceestimatessocial media |
| spellingShingle | Chase Walker Kristal Jones Brandn Green Frances Kim Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of Montana Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Public Health MRP multilevel regression poststratification surveillance estimates social media |
| title | Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of Montana |
| title_full | Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of Montana |
| title_fullStr | Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of Montana |
| title_full_unstemmed | Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of Montana |
| title_short | Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of Montana |
| title_sort | small area estimation using multilevel regression and poststratification to estimate cannabis use in the state of montana |
| topic | MRP multilevel regression poststratification surveillance estimates social media |
| url | https://riviste.unimi.it/index.php/ebph/article/view/26905 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chasewalker smallareaestimationusingmultilevelregressionandpoststratificationtoestimatecannabisuseinthestateofmontana AT kristaljones smallareaestimationusingmultilevelregressionandpoststratificationtoestimatecannabisuseinthestateofmontana AT brandngreen smallareaestimationusingmultilevelregressionandpoststratificationtoestimatecannabisuseinthestateofmontana AT franceskim smallareaestimationusingmultilevelregressionandpoststratificationtoestimatecannabisuseinthestateofmontana |