Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Introduction. Previous COVID-19 prognostic models have been developed in hospital settings and are not applicable to COVID-19 cases in the general population. There is an urgent need for prognostic scores aimed to identify patients at high risk of complications at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Met...
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Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2360478 |
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| author | Gerardo Alvarez-Uria Sumanth Gandra Venkata R. Gurram Raghu P. Reddy Manoranjan Midde Praveen Kumar Ketty E Arce |
| author_facet | Gerardo Alvarez-Uria Sumanth Gandra Venkata R. Gurram Raghu P. Reddy Manoranjan Midde Praveen Kumar Ketty E Arce |
| author_sort | Gerardo Alvarez-Uria |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction. Previous COVID-19 prognostic models have been developed in hospital settings and are not applicable to COVID-19 cases in the general population. There is an urgent need for prognostic scores aimed to identify patients at high risk of complications at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Methods. The RDT COVID-19 Observational Study (RCOS) collected clinical data from patients with COVID-19 admitted regardless of the severity of their symptoms in a general hospital in India. We aimed to develop and validate a simple bedside prognostic score to predict the risk of hypoxaemia or death. Results. 4035 patients were included in the development cohort and 2046 in the validation cohort. The primary outcome occurred in 961 (23.8%) and 548 (26.8%) patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The final model included 12 variables: age, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, aspartate transaminase, lactate dehydrogenase, urea, C-reactive protein, sodium, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio. In the validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) was 0.907 (95% CI, 0.892–0.922), and the Brier Score was 0.098. The decision curve analysis showed good clinical utility in hypothetical scenarios where the admission of patients was decided according to the prognostic index. When the prognostic index was used to predict mortality in the validation cohort, the AUROCC was 0.947 (95% CI, 0.925–0.97) and the Brier score was 0.0188. Conclusions. The RCOS prognostic index could help improve the decision making in the current COVID-19 pandemic, especially in resource-limited settings with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India. However, implementation in other settings is needed to cross-validate and verify our findings. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a4fa519285e747ddbf38d30b7c5e17ce |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-7098 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-a4fa519285e747ddbf38d30b7c5e17ce2025-02-03T06:04:59ZengWileyInterdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases1687-70982022-01-01202210.1155/2022/2360478Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 InfectionGerardo Alvarez-Uria0Sumanth Gandra1Venkata R. Gurram2Raghu P. Reddy3Manoranjan Midde4Praveen Kumar5Ketty E Arce6Department of Infectious DiseasesDivision of Infectious DiseasesDepartment of General MedicineDepartment of MicrobiologyDepartment of Infectious DiseasesDepartment of OrthopaedicsDepartment of Emergency MedicineIntroduction. Previous COVID-19 prognostic models have been developed in hospital settings and are not applicable to COVID-19 cases in the general population. There is an urgent need for prognostic scores aimed to identify patients at high risk of complications at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Methods. The RDT COVID-19 Observational Study (RCOS) collected clinical data from patients with COVID-19 admitted regardless of the severity of their symptoms in a general hospital in India. We aimed to develop and validate a simple bedside prognostic score to predict the risk of hypoxaemia or death. Results. 4035 patients were included in the development cohort and 2046 in the validation cohort. The primary outcome occurred in 961 (23.8%) and 548 (26.8%) patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The final model included 12 variables: age, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, aspartate transaminase, lactate dehydrogenase, urea, C-reactive protein, sodium, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio. In the validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) was 0.907 (95% CI, 0.892–0.922), and the Brier Score was 0.098. The decision curve analysis showed good clinical utility in hypothetical scenarios where the admission of patients was decided according to the prognostic index. When the prognostic index was used to predict mortality in the validation cohort, the AUROCC was 0.947 (95% CI, 0.925–0.97) and the Brier score was 0.0188. Conclusions. The RCOS prognostic index could help improve the decision making in the current COVID-19 pandemic, especially in resource-limited settings with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India. However, implementation in other settings is needed to cross-validate and verify our findings.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2360478 |
| spellingShingle | Gerardo Alvarez-Uria Sumanth Gandra Venkata R. Gurram Raghu P. Reddy Manoranjan Midde Praveen Kumar Ketty E Arce Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| title | Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection |
| title_full | Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection |
| title_fullStr | Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection |
| title_short | Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection |
| title_sort | development and validation of the rcos prognostic index a bedside multivariable logistic regression model to predict hypoxaemia or death in patients with sars cov 2 infection |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2360478 |
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