Prediction of Convective Storms at Convection-Resolving 1 km Resolution over Continental United States with Radar Data Assimilation: An Example Case of 26 May 2008 and Precipitation Forecasts from Spring 2009
For the first time ever, convection-resolving forecasts at 1 km grid spacing were produced in realtime in spring 2009 by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma. The forecasts assimilated both radial velocity and reflectivity data from all operational WS...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/259052 |
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| author | Ming Xue Fanyou Kong Kevin W. Thomas Jidong Gao Yunheng Wang Keith Brewster Kelvin K. Droegemeier |
| author_facet | Ming Xue Fanyou Kong Kevin W. Thomas Jidong Gao Yunheng Wang Keith Brewster Kelvin K. Droegemeier |
| author_sort | Ming Xue |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | For the first time ever, convection-resolving forecasts at 1 km grid spacing were produced in realtime in spring 2009 by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma. The forecasts assimilated both radial velocity and reflectivity data from all operational WSR-88D radars within a domain covering most of the continental United States. In preparation for the realtime forecasts, 1 km forecast tests were carried out using a case from spring 2008 and the forecasts with and without assimilating radar data are compared with corresponding 4 km forecasts produced in realtime. Significant positive impact of radar data assimilation is found to last at least 24 hours. The 1 km grid produced a more accurate forecast of organized convection, especially in structure and intensity details. It successfully predicted an isolated severe-weather-producing storm nearly 24 hours into the forecast, which all ten members of the 4 km real time ensemble forecasts failed to predict. This case, together with all available forecasts from 2009 CAPS realtime forecasts, provides evidence of the value of both convection-resolving 1 km grid and radar data assimilation for severe weather prediction for up to 24 hours. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a36435a2baa0410e8cd896cfc83ec802 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-a36435a2baa0410e8cd896cfc83ec8022025-02-03T01:21:49ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172013-01-01201310.1155/2013/259052259052Prediction of Convective Storms at Convection-Resolving 1 km Resolution over Continental United States with Radar Data Assimilation: An Example Case of 26 May 2008 and Precipitation Forecasts from Spring 2009Ming Xue0Fanyou Kong1Kevin W. Thomas2Jidong Gao3Yunheng Wang4Keith Brewster5Kelvin K. Droegemeier6Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USACenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USACenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USACenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USACenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USACenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USACenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USAFor the first time ever, convection-resolving forecasts at 1 km grid spacing were produced in realtime in spring 2009 by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma. The forecasts assimilated both radial velocity and reflectivity data from all operational WSR-88D radars within a domain covering most of the continental United States. In preparation for the realtime forecasts, 1 km forecast tests were carried out using a case from spring 2008 and the forecasts with and without assimilating radar data are compared with corresponding 4 km forecasts produced in realtime. Significant positive impact of radar data assimilation is found to last at least 24 hours. The 1 km grid produced a more accurate forecast of organized convection, especially in structure and intensity details. It successfully predicted an isolated severe-weather-producing storm nearly 24 hours into the forecast, which all ten members of the 4 km real time ensemble forecasts failed to predict. This case, together with all available forecasts from 2009 CAPS realtime forecasts, provides evidence of the value of both convection-resolving 1 km grid and radar data assimilation for severe weather prediction for up to 24 hours.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/259052 |
| spellingShingle | Ming Xue Fanyou Kong Kevin W. Thomas Jidong Gao Yunheng Wang Keith Brewster Kelvin K. Droegemeier Prediction of Convective Storms at Convection-Resolving 1 km Resolution over Continental United States with Radar Data Assimilation: An Example Case of 26 May 2008 and Precipitation Forecasts from Spring 2009 Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Prediction of Convective Storms at Convection-Resolving 1 km Resolution over Continental United States with Radar Data Assimilation: An Example Case of 26 May 2008 and Precipitation Forecasts from Spring 2009 |
| title_full | Prediction of Convective Storms at Convection-Resolving 1 km Resolution over Continental United States with Radar Data Assimilation: An Example Case of 26 May 2008 and Precipitation Forecasts from Spring 2009 |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Convective Storms at Convection-Resolving 1 km Resolution over Continental United States with Radar Data Assimilation: An Example Case of 26 May 2008 and Precipitation Forecasts from Spring 2009 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Convective Storms at Convection-Resolving 1 km Resolution over Continental United States with Radar Data Assimilation: An Example Case of 26 May 2008 and Precipitation Forecasts from Spring 2009 |
| title_short | Prediction of Convective Storms at Convection-Resolving 1 km Resolution over Continental United States with Radar Data Assimilation: An Example Case of 26 May 2008 and Precipitation Forecasts from Spring 2009 |
| title_sort | prediction of convective storms at convection resolving 1 km resolution over continental united states with radar data assimilation an example case of 26 may 2008 and precipitation forecasts from spring 2009 |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/259052 |
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