Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin
Predicting land use change is an indispensable aspect in identifying the best development and management of land resources and their potential. This study used certified land-use maps of 1997, 2006, and 2015 combined with ancillary data such as road networks, water bodies and slopes, obtained from t...
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2020-07-01
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| Series: | Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management |
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| author | M. Camara N.R.B. Jamil A.F.B. Abdullah R.B. Hashim |
| author_facet | M. Camara N.R.B. Jamil A.F.B. Abdullah R.B. Hashim |
| author_sort | M. Camara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predicting land use change is an indispensable aspect in identifying the best development and management of land resources and their potential. This study used certified land-use maps of 1997, 2006, and 2015 combined with ancillary data such as road networks, water bodies and slopes, obtained from the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Surveying and Mapping in Malaysia, respectively. The prediction of future land use changes in the Selangor River basin in Malaysia was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model. The transition probability matrices were computed using the land use conditions of the periods 1997-2006, 2006-2015, 1997-2015. The performance of the model was very good in its overall ability to simulate the actual land use map of 2015, with the index values of 0.92% and 0.97%, respectively for Kappa for no information and Kappa for grid-cell level location which indicated the reliability of the model to successfully simulate land use changes in 2024 and 2033. Based on the expected results, the future urban area will grow faster (33%) over the next two decades, leading to a decline in forest area that is expected to lose 8% of its total space during these periods. Agricultural land will increase to 4%, while water bodies will change slightly increasing to 1%, and other areas of land use will likely become reservoirs of water, topsoil or new green spaces shrinking at 30%. Given the importance of knowledge of future land use in addressing the problems of uncontrolled development on environmental quality, this study could be valuable for land use planners of the river basin largely covered by natural forest. The study however, suggests future research to integrate geospatial techniques with biophysical and socio-economic factors in simulating land use trends. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a34d4798289d4df082f19c1ffc047d62 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2383-3572 2383-3866 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | GJESM Publisher |
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| series | Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-a34d4798289d4df082f19c1ffc047d622025-02-02T22:45:47ZengGJESM PublisherGlobal Journal of Environmental Science and Management2383-35722383-38662020-07-016340341410.22034/gjesm.2020.03.0938447Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basinM. Camara0N.R.B. Jamil1A.F.B. Abdullah2R.B. Hashim3Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, MalaysiaDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, MalaysiaDepartment of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400, Serdang, Selangor, MalaysiaDepartment of Environmental Management, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400, Serdang, Selangor, MalaysiaPredicting land use change is an indispensable aspect in identifying the best development and management of land resources and their potential. This study used certified land-use maps of 1997, 2006, and 2015 combined with ancillary data such as road networks, water bodies and slopes, obtained from the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Surveying and Mapping in Malaysia, respectively. The prediction of future land use changes in the Selangor River basin in Malaysia was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model. The transition probability matrices were computed using the land use conditions of the periods 1997-2006, 2006-2015, 1997-2015. The performance of the model was very good in its overall ability to simulate the actual land use map of 2015, with the index values of 0.92% and 0.97%, respectively for Kappa for no information and Kappa for grid-cell level location which indicated the reliability of the model to successfully simulate land use changes in 2024 and 2033. Based on the expected results, the future urban area will grow faster (33%) over the next two decades, leading to a decline in forest area that is expected to lose 8% of its total space during these periods. Agricultural land will increase to 4%, while water bodies will change slightly increasing to 1%, and other areas of land use will likely become reservoirs of water, topsoil or new green spaces shrinking at 30%. Given the importance of knowledge of future land use in addressing the problems of uncontrolled development on environmental quality, this study could be valuable for land use planners of the river basin largely covered by natural forest. The study however, suggests future research to integrate geospatial techniques with biophysical and socio-economic factors in simulating land use trends.https://www.gjesm.net/article_38447_9918389c116163d9ebd7e04a6313f388.pdfca-markov modelchange simulationland use changeriver basinurban development |
| spellingShingle | M. Camara N.R.B. Jamil A.F.B. Abdullah R.B. Hashim Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management ca-markov model change simulation land use change river basin urban development |
| title | Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin |
| title_full | Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin |
| title_fullStr | Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin |
| title_short | Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin |
| title_sort | integrating cellular automata markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin |
| topic | ca-markov model change simulation land use change river basin urban development |
| url | https://www.gjesm.net/article_38447_9918389c116163d9ebd7e04a6313f388.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mcamara integratingcellularautomatamarkovmodeltosimulatefuturelandusechangeofatropicalbasin AT nrbjamil integratingcellularautomatamarkovmodeltosimulatefuturelandusechangeofatropicalbasin AT afbabdullah integratingcellularautomatamarkovmodeltosimulatefuturelandusechangeofatropicalbasin AT rbhashim integratingcellularautomatamarkovmodeltosimulatefuturelandusechangeofatropicalbasin |