Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll
Abstract Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and soil on the...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85849-8 |
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| author | Lakshitha Premathilake Saikat Ghosh Rajiv Prasad Sourav Taraphdar Taiping Wang Tarang Khangaonkar Bruce Napier Tracy Ikenberry Lai-yung Leung |
| author_facet | Lakshitha Premathilake Saikat Ghosh Rajiv Prasad Sourav Taraphdar Taiping Wang Tarang Khangaonkar Bruce Napier Tracy Ikenberry Lai-yung Leung |
| author_sort | Lakshitha Premathilake |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and soil on the islands will remain for decades to come. With intensifying climate and extreme weather events, the possibility of redistribution of deposited radionuclide material has become a great concern. This study uses a numerical modeling approach to estimate the potential elevated radionuclide concentrations that can be distributed during storm events under current and future climates. We simulated three historical storm scenarios that are most likely to impact Atoll’s environment and remobilize the radionuclide-bound sediments. WRF-ARW was used to reconstruct these storm scenarios under current year (2015) and future year (2090) climates. Storm-induced ocean hydrodynamics conditions were generated using FVCOM. FVCOM-ICM was externally coupled to simulate the fate and transport of radionuclides. Given that the 239Pu is the largest fraction of the radionuclide inventory of the lagoon and Atoll islands, the model results show the highest average incremental 239Pu concentration that an island may be exposed to is 3.25E-4 Bq/m3 (becquerel per cubic meters), which is an increase of 84 times the average baseline/existing 239Pu concentration without the storm conditions. The overall increase in 239Pu average over all the islands of Atoll is about 20 folds relative to the baseline concentration. Despite the high relative increase ratios, a comprehensive exposure assessment is required to investigate the exposure risk. Further, due to the limitations of the study and uncertainties/biases in the historical data used, further research supported by field surveys to better characterize the current contamination level may be needed to make more accurate predictions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a310a712e50e46549d7790eb8c767f29 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-a310a712e50e46549d7790eb8c767f292025-01-19T12:24:30ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115111910.1038/s41598-025-85849-8Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak AtollLakshitha Premathilake0Saikat Ghosh1Rajiv Prasad2Sourav Taraphdar3Taiping Wang4Tarang Khangaonkar5Bruce Napier6Tracy Ikenberry7Lai-yung Leung8Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryPacific Northwest National LaboratoryPacific Northwest National LaboratoryPacific Northwest National LaboratoryPacific Northwest National LaboratoryPacific Northwest National LaboratoryPacific Northwest National LaboratoryPacific Northwest National LaboratoryPacific Northwest National LaboratoryAbstract Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and soil on the islands will remain for decades to come. With intensifying climate and extreme weather events, the possibility of redistribution of deposited radionuclide material has become a great concern. This study uses a numerical modeling approach to estimate the potential elevated radionuclide concentrations that can be distributed during storm events under current and future climates. We simulated three historical storm scenarios that are most likely to impact Atoll’s environment and remobilize the radionuclide-bound sediments. WRF-ARW was used to reconstruct these storm scenarios under current year (2015) and future year (2090) climates. Storm-induced ocean hydrodynamics conditions were generated using FVCOM. FVCOM-ICM was externally coupled to simulate the fate and transport of radionuclides. Given that the 239Pu is the largest fraction of the radionuclide inventory of the lagoon and Atoll islands, the model results show the highest average incremental 239Pu concentration that an island may be exposed to is 3.25E-4 Bq/m3 (becquerel per cubic meters), which is an increase of 84 times the average baseline/existing 239Pu concentration without the storm conditions. The overall increase in 239Pu average over all the islands of Atoll is about 20 folds relative to the baseline concentration. Despite the high relative increase ratios, a comprehensive exposure assessment is required to investigate the exposure risk. Further, due to the limitations of the study and uncertainties/biases in the historical data used, further research supported by field surveys to better characterize the current contamination level may be needed to make more accurate predictions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85849-8 |
| spellingShingle | Lakshitha Premathilake Saikat Ghosh Rajiv Prasad Sourav Taraphdar Taiping Wang Tarang Khangaonkar Bruce Napier Tracy Ikenberry Lai-yung Leung Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll Scientific Reports |
| title | Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll |
| title_full | Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll |
| title_short | Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll |
| title_sort | modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of enewetak atoll |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85849-8 |
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