Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized Likelihood
The initial size of a completely susceptible population in a group of individuals plays a key role in drawing inferences for epidemic models. However, this can be difficult to obtain in practice because, in any population, there might be individuals who may not transmit the disease during the epidem...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | The Scientific World Journal |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/241687 |
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| _version_ | 1832567603216777216 |
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| author | Changhyuck Oh |
| author_facet | Changhyuck Oh |
| author_sort | Changhyuck Oh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The initial size of a completely susceptible population in a group of individuals plays a key role in drawing inferences for epidemic models. However, this can be difficult to obtain in practice because, in any population, there might be individuals who may not transmit the disease during the epidemic. This short note describes how to improve the maximum likelihood estimators of the infection rate and the initial number of susceptible individuals and provides their approximate Hessian matrix for the general stochastic epidemic model by using the concept of the penalized likelihood function. The simulations of major epidemics show significant improvements in performance in averages and coverage ratios for the suggested estimator of the initial number in comparison to existing methods. We applied the proposed method to the Abakaliki smallpox data. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a293a020c05b4196b0650b2c6cb03cb1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2356-6140 1537-744X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Scientific World Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-a293a020c05b4196b0650b2c6cb03cb12025-02-03T01:01:10ZengWileyThe Scientific World Journal2356-61401537-744X2014-01-01201410.1155/2014/241687241687Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized LikelihoodChanghyuck Oh0Department of Statistics, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, Gyeongbuk 712-749, Republic of KoreaThe initial size of a completely susceptible population in a group of individuals plays a key role in drawing inferences for epidemic models. However, this can be difficult to obtain in practice because, in any population, there might be individuals who may not transmit the disease during the epidemic. This short note describes how to improve the maximum likelihood estimators of the infection rate and the initial number of susceptible individuals and provides their approximate Hessian matrix for the general stochastic epidemic model by using the concept of the penalized likelihood function. The simulations of major epidemics show significant improvements in performance in averages and coverage ratios for the suggested estimator of the initial number in comparison to existing methods. We applied the proposed method to the Abakaliki smallpox data.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/241687 |
| spellingShingle | Changhyuck Oh Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized Likelihood The Scientific World Journal |
| title | Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized Likelihood |
| title_full | Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized Likelihood |
| title_fullStr | Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized Likelihood |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized Likelihood |
| title_short | Improved Estimation of the Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals in the General Stochastic Epidemic Model Using Penalized Likelihood |
| title_sort | improved estimation of the initial number of susceptible individuals in the general stochastic epidemic model using penalized likelihood |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/241687 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT changhyuckoh improvedestimationoftheinitialnumberofsusceptibleindividualsinthegeneralstochasticepidemicmodelusingpenalizedlikelihood |