Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire
Abstract Fire and drought are expected to increase in frequency and severity in temperate forests due to climate change. To evaluate whether drought increases the likelihood of post‐fire tree mortality, we used a large database of tree survival and mortality from 32 years of wildland fires covering...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Ecosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70083 |
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| author | C. Alina Cansler Micah C. Wright Phillip J. vanMantgem Timothy M. Shearman J. Morgan Varner Sharon M. Hood |
| author_facet | C. Alina Cansler Micah C. Wright Phillip J. vanMantgem Timothy M. Shearman J. Morgan Varner Sharon M. Hood |
| author_sort | C. Alina Cansler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Fire and drought are expected to increase in frequency and severity in temperate forests due to climate change. To evaluate whether drought increases the likelihood of post‐fire tree mortality, we used a large database of tree survival and mortality from 32 years of wildland fires covering four dominant western North American conifers. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to predict the probability of individual tree mortality after fire based on species—Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine), Abies concolor (white fir), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas‐fir), and Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine)—bark thickness, bark char, percentage live tree crown scorched or consumed crown volume scorch (CVS), and mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD) anomalies the year pre‐fire and fire year relative to the 1985–2015 reference period. Although crown injury was the primary determinant of tree mortality after fire, drought increased likelihood of death, with a 2‐SD increase in CWD (+115.7) resulting in a 78% increase in the probability of mortality. We assessed the crown scorch level expected to result in >50% probability of mortality under different CWD scenarios: observed CWD, CWD of +2, and +4°C warming scenarios. Increased climatic moisture stress amplified tree death, reducing the threshold that causes tree mortality across all conifers under +4°C warming, with more subtle and species‐specific reductions for the +2°C scenario. Models predicting post‐fire tree mortality are components of global and regional carbon estimates, habitat suitability assessments, and forest management planning and decision support systems. The amplifying effects of drought on post‐fire tree mortality and predicted future climates are likely to lead to higher tree mortality following fires in forested landscapes of western North America and may have cascading effects on ecosystem services and future forest resilience. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a259ce9763664819a2437a95e5eb1af8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-a259ce9763664819a2437a95e5eb1af82025-01-27T14:51:34ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252024-12-011512n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.70083Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fireC. Alina Cansler0Micah C. Wright1Phillip J. vanMantgem2Timothy M. Shearman3J. Morgan Varner4Sharon M. Hood5Department of Forest Management W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana Missoula Montana USAWestern Ecological Research Center, US Geological Survey Arcata California USAWestern Ecological Research Center, US Geological Survey Arcata California USATall Timbers Research Station Tallahassee Florida USATall Timbers Research Station Tallahassee Florida USARocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service Missoula Montana USAAbstract Fire and drought are expected to increase in frequency and severity in temperate forests due to climate change. To evaluate whether drought increases the likelihood of post‐fire tree mortality, we used a large database of tree survival and mortality from 32 years of wildland fires covering four dominant western North American conifers. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to predict the probability of individual tree mortality after fire based on species—Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine), Abies concolor (white fir), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas‐fir), and Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine)—bark thickness, bark char, percentage live tree crown scorched or consumed crown volume scorch (CVS), and mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD) anomalies the year pre‐fire and fire year relative to the 1985–2015 reference period. Although crown injury was the primary determinant of tree mortality after fire, drought increased likelihood of death, with a 2‐SD increase in CWD (+115.7) resulting in a 78% increase in the probability of mortality. We assessed the crown scorch level expected to result in >50% probability of mortality under different CWD scenarios: observed CWD, CWD of +2, and +4°C warming scenarios. Increased climatic moisture stress amplified tree death, reducing the threshold that causes tree mortality across all conifers under +4°C warming, with more subtle and species‐specific reductions for the +2°C scenario. Models predicting post‐fire tree mortality are components of global and regional carbon estimates, habitat suitability assessments, and forest management planning and decision support systems. The amplifying effects of drought on post‐fire tree mortality and predicted future climates are likely to lead to higher tree mortality following fires in forested landscapes of western North America and may have cascading effects on ecosystem services and future forest resilience.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70083climate‐mediated fire effectsclimatic water deficitdisturbance interactionsdroughtpost‐fire mortalitywildland fire |
| spellingShingle | C. Alina Cansler Micah C. Wright Phillip J. vanMantgem Timothy M. Shearman J. Morgan Varner Sharon M. Hood Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire Ecosphere climate‐mediated fire effects climatic water deficit disturbance interactions drought post‐fire mortality wildland fire |
| title | Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire |
| title_full | Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire |
| title_fullStr | Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire |
| title_full_unstemmed | Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire |
| title_short | Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire |
| title_sort | drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire |
| topic | climate‐mediated fire effects climatic water deficit disturbance interactions drought post‐fire mortality wildland fire |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70083 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT calinacansler droughtbeforefireincreasestreemortalityafterfire AT micahcwright droughtbeforefireincreasestreemortalityafterfire AT phillipjvanmantgem droughtbeforefireincreasestreemortalityafterfire AT timothymshearman droughtbeforefireincreasestreemortalityafterfire AT jmorganvarner droughtbeforefireincreasestreemortalityafterfire AT sharonmhood droughtbeforefireincreasestreemortalityafterfire |