Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecasting
Practical usefulness of factor-vector autoregression has been considered, which makes it possible to study macroeconomic processes impact on the monetary policy state, to conduct full-scale monitoring and to identify economic growth impact on monetary policy. Publications devoted to the issues of un...
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Publishing House of the State University of Management
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Вестник университета |
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| Online Access: | https://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/5487 |
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| author | A. P. Anufrieva |
| author_facet | A. P. Anufrieva |
| author_sort | A. P. Anufrieva |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Practical usefulness of factor-vector autoregression has been considered, which makes it possible to study macroeconomic processes impact on the monetary policy state, to conduct full-scale monitoring and to identify economic growth impact on monetary policy. Publications devoted to the issues of unstable economic development and mathematical models describing the process of economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation and unstable development have been analyzed. The basic scenario in economy has been given. Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic variables using vector autoregressive (VAR) models has been studied. The FAVAR model with international reserves as the monetary policy variable and MIACR where the responses of one-year government bond rate and consumer index were positive have been estimated as the main instruments. The impulse responses shown indicate that the Russian authorities had a lack of monetary policy independence due to the country’s high dependence on the oil and natural gas sectors, which does not reveal evidence of monetary policy impact on lower consumer prices. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a11995844f7d463e85e3bf56f44cdded |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1816-4277 2686-8415 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Publishing House of the State University of Management |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Вестник университета |
| spelling | doaj-art-a11995844f7d463e85e3bf56f44cdded2025-02-04T08:28:22ZengPublishing House of the State University of ManagementВестник университета1816-42772686-84152024-10-010811912710.26425/1816-4277-2024-8-119-1273184Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecastingA. P. Anufrieva0Financial University Under the Government of the Russian FederationPractical usefulness of factor-vector autoregression has been considered, which makes it possible to study macroeconomic processes impact on the monetary policy state, to conduct full-scale monitoring and to identify economic growth impact on monetary policy. Publications devoted to the issues of unstable economic development and mathematical models describing the process of economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation and unstable development have been analyzed. The basic scenario in economy has been given. Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic variables using vector autoregressive (VAR) models has been studied. The FAVAR model with international reserves as the monetary policy variable and MIACR where the responses of one-year government bond rate and consumer index were positive have been estimated as the main instruments. The impulse responses shown indicate that the Russian authorities had a lack of monetary policy independence due to the country’s high dependence on the oil and natural gas sectors, which does not reveal evidence of monetary policy impact on lower consumer prices.https://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/5487economic processescrisis situationsinflationmathematical modelbudget deficitcryptocurrencyrecessionmonetary policy |
| spellingShingle | A. P. Anufrieva Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecasting Вестник университета economic processes crisis situations inflation mathematical model budget deficit cryptocurrency recession monetary policy |
| title | Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecasting |
| title_full | Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecasting |
| title_short | Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecasting |
| title_sort | development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes including historical perspective and their forecasting |
| topic | economic processes crisis situations inflation mathematical model budget deficit cryptocurrency recession monetary policy |
| url | https://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/5487 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT apanufrieva developmentandevolutionofmathematicalandeconometricmodelsfortheanalysisofmacroeconomicprocessesincludinghistoricalperspectiveandtheirforecasting |