Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference Data
Mode choice behaviour is often modelled by discrete choice models, in which the utility of each mode is characterized by mode-specific parameters reflecting how strongly the utility of that mode depends on attributes such as travel speed and cost, and a mode-specific constant value. For new modes, t...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6816851 |
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| _version_ | 1832549954445377536 |
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| author | Gijsbert Koen de Clercq Arjan van Binsbergen Bart van Arem Maaike Snelder |
| author_facet | Gijsbert Koen de Clercq Arjan van Binsbergen Bart van Arem Maaike Snelder |
| author_sort | Gijsbert Koen de Clercq |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mode choice behaviour is often modelled by discrete choice models, in which the utility of each mode is characterized by mode-specific parameters reflecting how strongly the utility of that mode depends on attributes such as travel speed and cost, and a mode-specific constant value. For new modes, the mode-specific parameters and the constant in the utility function of discrete choice models are not known and are difficult to estimate on the basis of stated preferences data/choice experiments and cannot be estimated on the basis of revealed preference data. This paper demonstrates how revealed preference data can be used to estimate a discrete mode choice model without using mode-specific constants and mode-specific parameters. This establishes a method that can be used to analyze any new mode using revealed preference data and discrete choice models and is demonstrated using the OViN 2017 dataset with trips throughout the Netherlands using a multinomial and nested logit model. This results in a utility function without any alternative specific constants or parameters, with a rho-squared of 0.828 and an accuracy of 0.758. The parameters from this model are used to calculate the future modal split of shared autonomous vehicles and electric steps, leading to a potential modal split range of 24–30% and 37–44% when using a multinomial logit model, and 15–20% and 33–40% when using a nested logit model. An overestimation of the future modal split occurs due to the partial similarities between different transport modes when using a multinomial logit model. It can therefore be concluded that a nested logit model is better suited for estimating the potential modal split of a future mode than a multinomial logit model. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the future modal split of shared autonomous vehicles and electric steps has been calculated using revealed preference data from existing modes using an unlabelled mode modelling approach. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9fee12a651f040a4b80d17926990873c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-9fee12a651f040a4b80d17926990873c2025-02-03T06:08:15ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation2042-31952022-01-01202210.1155/2022/6816851Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference DataGijsbert Koen de Clercq0Arjan van Binsbergen1Bart van Arem2Maaike Snelder3Faculty of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesFaculty of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesFaculty of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesFaculty of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesMode choice behaviour is often modelled by discrete choice models, in which the utility of each mode is characterized by mode-specific parameters reflecting how strongly the utility of that mode depends on attributes such as travel speed and cost, and a mode-specific constant value. For new modes, the mode-specific parameters and the constant in the utility function of discrete choice models are not known and are difficult to estimate on the basis of stated preferences data/choice experiments and cannot be estimated on the basis of revealed preference data. This paper demonstrates how revealed preference data can be used to estimate a discrete mode choice model without using mode-specific constants and mode-specific parameters. This establishes a method that can be used to analyze any new mode using revealed preference data and discrete choice models and is demonstrated using the OViN 2017 dataset with trips throughout the Netherlands using a multinomial and nested logit model. This results in a utility function without any alternative specific constants or parameters, with a rho-squared of 0.828 and an accuracy of 0.758. The parameters from this model are used to calculate the future modal split of shared autonomous vehicles and electric steps, leading to a potential modal split range of 24–30% and 37–44% when using a multinomial logit model, and 15–20% and 33–40% when using a nested logit model. An overestimation of the future modal split occurs due to the partial similarities between different transport modes when using a multinomial logit model. It can therefore be concluded that a nested logit model is better suited for estimating the potential modal split of a future mode than a multinomial logit model. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the future modal split of shared autonomous vehicles and electric steps has been calculated using revealed preference data from existing modes using an unlabelled mode modelling approach.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6816851 |
| spellingShingle | Gijsbert Koen de Clercq Arjan van Binsbergen Bart van Arem Maaike Snelder Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference Data Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference Data |
| title_full | Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference Data |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference Data |
| title_short | Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference Data |
| title_sort | estimating the potential modal split of any future mode using revealed preference data |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6816851 |
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