Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019
This research validates tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting of Vietnam, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, and global models (the Japanese Meteorological Agency [JMA], global spectral model [GSM], the National Center...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/7244738 |
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| author | Hoa Vo Van Hung Mai Khanh Tien Du Duc Lars Robert Hole Quan Dang Dinh Duc Tran Anh Hang Pham Thi Nam Hoang Gia |
| author_facet | Hoa Vo Van Hung Mai Khanh Tien Du Duc Lars Robert Hole Quan Dang Dinh Duc Tran Anh Hang Pham Thi Nam Hoang Gia |
| author_sort | Hoa Vo Van |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This research validates tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting of Vietnam, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, and global models (the Japanese Meteorological Agency [JMA], global spectral model [GSM], the National Centers for Environmental Prediction [NCEP], Global Forecast System [GFS], and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF] Integrated Forecasting System [IFS]) for 72 activated TCs over the Bien Dong Sea. The best quality track forecasts come from the IFS and then GFS and GSM, while the GFS provides a good intensity forecast compared to IFS and GSM. The official guidance and model track forecast tend to be slower and leftward compared to observations (negative biases of along and cross-track errors). Regarding the ECMWF’s ensemble track forecast, the strike probability forecast is quite overforecast/overconfident, especially for a lead time of 72 h and at high probabilities. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9edfa015466a4a01858bd1fc78686abb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-9edfa015466a4a01858bd1fc78686abb2025-02-03T01:45:31ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93172024-01-01202410.1155/2024/7244738Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019Hoa Vo Van0Hung Mai Khanh1Tien Du Duc2Lars Robert Hole3Quan Dang Dinh4Duc Tran Anh5Hang Pham Thi6Nam Hoang Gia7Northern Delta Regional Hydro-Meteorological CenterVietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological ForecastingVietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological ForecastingNorwegian Meteorological InstituteVietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological ForecastingVietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological ForecastingPeople’s Security Academy of VietnamVietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological ForecastingThis research validates tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting of Vietnam, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, and global models (the Japanese Meteorological Agency [JMA], global spectral model [GSM], the National Centers for Environmental Prediction [NCEP], Global Forecast System [GFS], and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF] Integrated Forecasting System [IFS]) for 72 activated TCs over the Bien Dong Sea. The best quality track forecasts come from the IFS and then GFS and GSM, while the GFS provides a good intensity forecast compared to IFS and GSM. The official guidance and model track forecast tend to be slower and leftward compared to observations (negative biases of along and cross-track errors). Regarding the ECMWF’s ensemble track forecast, the strike probability forecast is quite overforecast/overconfident, especially for a lead time of 72 h and at high probabilities.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/7244738 |
| spellingShingle | Hoa Vo Van Hung Mai Khanh Tien Du Duc Lars Robert Hole Quan Dang Dinh Duc Tran Anh Hang Pham Thi Nam Hoang Gia Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019 Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019 |
| title_full | Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019 |
| title_fullStr | Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019 |
| title_short | Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019 |
| title_sort | performance of international global models and official tropical cyclone forecasts over the bien dong sea for the period 2012 2019 |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/7244738 |
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